So, Kameron Loe and Chris Capuano have out clauses in their contracts coming up. Here’s how I’m thinking the Brewers should deal with the situation:

– Bring up both Loe and Capuano, and insert one (or both!) into the starting rotation (Cappy gets first dibs because he’s a better story for the press). Remove Parra/Estrada and replace him with Capuano, remove Narveson and replace him with Loe.

When Capuano and Loe come up to the bigs, bring down Braddock and Estrada (both have options).

Rotation becomes Gallardo-Wolf-Loe-Capuano-Bush. R-L-R-L-R.

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milwaukee brewers by Cody

…could a reporter be excited about a 7IP start.

Frankly this ‘woe is me’ attitude is really silly, especially considering how well the last 3 games have been played. Between this post and the Ken Macha ‘blowup’ yesterday it’s pretty clear that the JS is trying to create this silly narrative that the Brewers are awful, they need a complete change of scenery, and woe is me my team isn’t a playoff contender right now.

That’s just simply not true. I actually sense a little winning streak coming up, Hart’s stroking it right now and Fielder’s been walking a ton lately, which is how his hot streaks start. Hot pitching is contagious, and the last two games have felt like momentum.

As for Ken Macha getting fired (or not getting fired, I should say), I only have to real complaints with him: He overuses Todd Coffey, and he doesn’t get ejected when the team could use a fire lit under its ass (see Friday night, 1st inning vs. Twins).

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Might as well separate this post into a few separate sections…

A) BREWERS WIN!!!

B) Gregg Zaun’s going on the DL, Jon Lucroy is going to get called up. Carlos Gomez will be back today, probably for Adam Stern. These are all acceptable moves, although I’m not anticipating seeing Lucroy get the starting nod over Kottaras yet. He’s still too young and needs some more seasoning – his bat isn’t quite there yet. I like Lucroy as 2011′s starting C.

C) Zach Braddock might get called up? Both good relief prospects are coming up at about the right time. I agree with what Al said (see below) that the Brewers are a week with a fresh pen away from being good again.

D) Miller Park Drunk/Al’s Ramblings did a back-and-forth about Doug Melvin.

I’ve always been an avid defender of Melvin myself… which is weird. I generally come from the Seattle Mariners/Baltimore Ravens ‘defense first, offense second’ philosophy of building a team. Melvin’s is obviously the other way around. I’d recite exactly why I still like Melvin as the GM, but that link did as complete a job as I ever would.

The one thing neither of them talked about is the current minor league system as it is. There aren’t any starting pitchers near a major league waiting in the wings, and prospects like Brett Lawrie, Jon Lucroy etc. are still at least a year away from making it. Many Brewers farmhands that we’ve had for cheap these past few years are now a year or two away from free agency, and we don’t have near the firepower waiting that we once had.

Which makes me question… How much of our team was built by Doug Melvin, and how much by Jack Z’s impressive scouting? Melvin doesn’t exactly have the best track record with signing free agents vital to the team’s success. In other words, Melvin’s great at signing below-average, undervalued, bargain-bin players like Zaun, Counsell, Edmonds et al, but when the pitching staff needs one more anchor or we need another solution in the bullpen Melvin tends to miss with more players than I’m comfortable with.

All this talk about firing Melvin seems silly to me, because he’s only in control of so much of what happens. If Bruce Seid ends up becoming a poor scouting director, the blame is going to fall on Melvin, much like the poor play of a team will cause the firing of a manager. It’s best to take all the ‘dependent metrics’ out of the equation when evaluating Melvin, and insofar he’s about as good as his track record: average to above-average.

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Hoffman’s gonna take a few days to work out kinks.

I’m glad I didn’t watch the game yesterday, as I’m sure I would’ve been as frustrated as anyone watching Hoffman blow it again. He’s been missing his spots by a ton, now that I look at the replay.

However, I don’t know if

All Macha would say is Hoffman is done for now because he’s going in the repair shop. Macha said pitching coach Rick Peterson has some new scouting data and info that shows Hoffman is in need of a mechanical adjustment in his delivery. Macha said Hoffman has lost his arm slot and is coming too much over the top, stopping his pitches from moving as he wants and affecting his location.

Macha said Peterson talked with Hoffman about that very problem a few weeks ago but didn’t say why it was not resolved. Macha also admitted that at age 42, Hoffman might have to make adjustments.

is anything more than management excuse for his terrible pitching. He’s either going to get better in these next couple days, or he’s completely cooked and can’t locate his pitches anymore.

Not that I won’t give him another chance.

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Manny Parra’s starting tomorrow instead of Suppan.

Good choice, although it doesn’t give me much confidence. Parra’s not exactly the type of pitcher I want to use as a stopper after a big losing streak. He’ll probably go 5, 4K 4BB 4ER, and then the pen will give up a few more runs.

Like I said earlier though, it’s still mid-May. I’ll bet anyone that the Brewers will be back over .500 by the end of June.

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milwaukee brewers by Cody

Thought I’d post a little rumor that fell into my lap today. Don’t take this as truth obviously, but something to think about:

Inside source with significant previous hits (had the Wolf, Braun, and Gallardo contracts a few days before they were announced) says he has the Brewers offer to Fielder:

It is a 7 year deal w/ a club option for the 7th year, but that option vests if Fielder finishes in top 10 of MVP voting.

Total guaranteed is $109 mil

if they pick up 7th year or if it vests then the total guaranteed is $128 mil.

Has full no trade clause and a hotel suite on the road.

There are a bunch of incentive built in for all-star, gold glove, mvp, etc. which range from 50k to 150k

Now, who knows whether this is true or not, but if it is, I don’t see Prince accepting. A couple weeks ago he saw his player comp Ryan Howard snag $25 mil/year for an extended period of time… I don’t think he’d be OK with $19 mil/year, even if he was willing to accept a hometown discount.

Add that to all the times we’ve read Ryan Braun or Fielder himself say that he’s going to get paid a bunch of money someday, I suspect the Brewers might trade him this offseason for pitching + prospects and restock for 2012.

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Truly desperate times by Tom H.

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

And, make no mistake about it, these are desperate times at home for the Brewers.

Manager Ken Macha loosened the pitch-count leash on his starting pitcher Saturday merely to get him into the sixth inning and lessen the burden on an overtaxed bullpen. It didn’t work, with either starter or relief corps, which is how things are going for the Brewers at Miller Park this season.

Letting yet another close game get away in the latter innings, the Brewers’ home woes continued with a 10-6 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies as a second consecutive sellout crowd watched in dismay.

…

Before watching his woeful pitching staff take another beating – the Brewers have surrendered 47 runs during this 0-5 home stand – Macha admitted that continuing to lose games at Miller Park was bad for business, bad for morale, bad for him, etc.

“Our organization is driven by attendance,” said Macha, well aware that the team has no chance for a third consecutive season attendance of 3 million if this madness continues.

Is it just me, or are people really reaching with this team?

It’s the middle of May… the Brewers are 6 games under .500. All it’s going to take is two weeks of hot baseball and the Brewers are right back in it.

And two weeks of hot baseball is just itching to come out. Take a look at the ‘worst’ (keyword: unluckiest) pitching staffs in baseball, sorted by both BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) and HR/FB% (Home Runs/Fly Ball rates). These stats average out to about .300 and around 10.5%, respectively:

5 ‘worst’ pitching staffs, by BABIP:
Brewers – .336
Pirates – .327
Astros – .325
Angels – .322
Diamondbacks – .322

5 ‘worst’ pitching staffs, by HR/FB%:
Diamondbacks – 14.0%
Brewers – 13.2%
Angels – 12.3%
Pirates – 11.7%
Phillies – 11.6%

These will get better. Doug Davis has a .415 BABIP against him, despite having consistent peripherals compared to the rest of this year.

The Crew has had an unlucky month-and-a-half pitchingwise so far. Leave it up to the media to overreact to it. I’d be willing to bet they’ll be over .500 by the end of June.

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Brewer stuff, milwaukee brewers by Cody

Since I haven’t posted for god-knows-how-long, we’re going to turn this blog into a newer twitter-feed of things I find interesting, with opinions thrown in there as well.

Mostly going to be Brewers stuff, but if I post about politics, economics or the printing industry, don’t be surprised.

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As per Tom H.’s Baseball America chat:

Ian (Pittsburgh): Is it wise for the Brewers to continue stockpiling their system with poor fielders and then moving them around to find a place where the bat can play? Braun, Weeks, Fielder are good hitters, but when you add Gamel, Laporta, and Lawrie it makes you wonder if they will give up too many runs. When is this going to start catching up to them?

Tom Haudricourt: The Brewers figure you can always trade bats for pitching at some point, if that proves to be the best thing. But it has been a trend in the organization, for sure. That’s why Escobar stands out so much. He can really play defense.

This is something certainly I and every other Brewer fan have noticed over the years… one of the reasons I’d rather keep Gamel at 3rd base or trade him. After Braun, poor fielding at Prince, and the talks of moving Weeks, Hardy, and Gamel, seeing Escobar come in as a pure, natural SS is a fresh sight.

I suspect the Brewers are keeping McGehee at 3rd right now to see if he’s the real deal or a one-year mirage. If he doesn’t work out, or falls back to a sub-.750 OPS, Gamel will be ready by then, as I think they want him to work with 3B coach Don Money in Nashville. If McGehee is the real shebang, I doubt Gamel will be held back. He’ll instead be traded for pitching either in the 2011 offseason or at the trading deadline.

What’s funny to me is this organizational philosophy. Jack Z. in Seattle has since turned an inept defensive team into a stellar one, all after utilizing draft picks on big boppers. Now Melvin seems to be running the same accord with the new young influx of Escobar and Gomez in the two more prime defensive positions.

Until Doug makes the defense totally revamped, the pitching staff will continue to remain mediocre.. if he keeps bringing in a bunch of Gomez type players to fill the holes, we’ll see guys like Manny Parra put up an ERA around 4.0. Why do you think Jarrod Washburn was so good in Seattle (2.74 ERA) and terrible in Detroit (7.33)?

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milwaukee brewers by Cody

Since school began taking over, I haven’t had the time to write about the Brewers… that doesn’t mean I haven’t been following them. Although posting will continue to be sporadic until I actually finish, I’m going to write as much as possible.

As everyone knows by now Doug Melvin traded J.J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez in a trade made to free up some money and solve the CF logjam. I defend the move, personally… even though I really like Mike Cameron it’s pretty clear keeping him is more of a sentimental move than a proper business move, and since baseball is a business, saving the money trumps keeping friends. The ~$7MM the Brewers save by bringing in Gomez will be spent on pitching, and the ~2 wins or so they lose should be more than made up for if they bring in a pitcher or two worth as much as they have left in their pockets. Let’s take a look at what next year’s payroll is going to look like realistically…

Conveniently Al’s Ramblings already took a look at the 2010 payroll. Here’s what he had to say:

Without buyouts and Hall, they are at $37M with guaranteed deals. Add in estimated payroll from guys not eligible for arby, you have Yo, Parra, Escobar, Stetter, DiFelice, McGehee, and I’ll add in Narveson…that’s seven guys at about $450K per, so that’s $3.15M, so a total of $40.15M for a dozen players.

Realistically, one catcher will be very cheap, be it a backup or a youngster. So will one utility IF. That’s 14 players for $41.05M. Weeks, about $3.75M in arby. Hart, about $4M in arby. Gomez, about $1.3M in arby (as a super 2). That’s 17 players for $50.1M. Coffey will likely get about $1.5M in arby…$51.6M for 18 players. You can probably pencil in Counsell or another backup IF for about $1.5M…19 for $53.1M. There’s two reserve OF spots still open, Gerut would probably get $2.5M in arby, but we do not know if he’ll remain. I’ll budget $3.5M for the pair of bench OF’s…21 for $56.6M. That leaves the catcher’s spot, a bullpen spot, and 2 SP’s remaining. Also, one of the commitments for next year is Dave Riske, who will probably not contribute ’til midseason, if at all. If the two bullpen openings are filled with guys like Carlos V, McClung, or the like, they’ll probably cost about $3-4M. We’ll use $3.5M for estimates, and that’s $60.1M. I keep thinking a veteran catcher of some sort will be brought in, at a cost of $2-3M. Again, splitting the difference, we’ll use $2.5M, the total is $62.6M.

How much is payroll? Well, Doug always says Mark never gives him a budget of $X. Last year’s Opening Day payroll was about $80M, and I’ve seen numbers used in the $85-90M range for last year…with additions such as Lopez, and including DL replacements. Assuming no increase, that would probably mean they “could” spend from $17-25M on these two SP’s that Doug is supposedly looking for.

Of course these are all estimates and ‘what-if’s regarding holes being filled, so obviously this $17-25MM number should be taken with a grain of salt. But let’s take a look at a couple of hypotheticals…

Trade for Edwin Jackson

Jackson is a young, cost-controlled pitcher still in arbitration. Despite all the trade talks and the talk of Detroit needing to grab some salary relief, it’s really unlikely he’d be “salary relief” since Detroit is a $120M+ payroll and Edwin still has two years of arbitration left. Likely the Brewers would have to take on one of their bad contracts or give up good prospects to pry him away… my guess is probably at least Mat Gamel.

Normally this wouldn’t be a bad thing but Edwin isn’t that great of a pitcher in the first place and giving up a highly touted prospect or taking on a bad contract in addition to him would be silly. It’d likely mean taking on Curtis Granderson’s ~$26MM remaining salary as well, and he’s looking more and more like a platoon player only. Now that the Brewers have Gomez, Granderson would be a significant downgrade. Besides, the Mariners are going for him too, which might cause an unnecessary bidding war.

Verdict: No thanks. We already have Suppan and Hall to worry about.

Sign a free agent, like Doug Davis or Jarrod Washburn.

Both Washburn and Davis are so-so pitchers who have been underrated by being in lower market areas (or in Washburn’s case, getting old). They’re not going to impress Brian Cashman or Theo Epstein, but they’re perfect for a mid-market team looking for a slightly above-average pitcher for a cheap price.

Davis himself might be a little overpriced, as people have noticed they might get in a bidding war with Seattle over him, and anything over a two-year deal is probably giving up too much for him. Seattle’s looking for pitching just as much as the Brewers are… and with their recent ‘defense-first’ mentality (trading for Franklin Gutierrez, resigning Jack Wilson), they can afford to sign an average pitcher, much like what Doug’s planning to do. Jack Z came from Milwaukee.

Washburn on the other hand had his value skyrocket in the middle of the year and then had it plummet after he was traded. He no longer was the beneficiary of a great D and pitcher’s park in Detroit, and he started regressing. Now his ceiling is a two-year deal worth about $10MM… just the kind of deal Doug should make. He’s getting old, which is turning some people off, but he’s a soft-tossing lefty, which means he should age well, and a fly ball pitcher with Gomes patrolling center is a recipe for success.

Verdict: Bring in JW.

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