Sheets' Divorce
Over the next few days I’m going to start compiling a list of legitimate Brewers websites — blogs, official sites, or whatever — on the linkroll to the right of the page. If you have one, or you know of one that I’ve missed, e-mail me at cody@czwief.com or comment with the link on this post; I’ll certainly put it up on the linkroll. I want to create a nice little database here of everything Brewers-related, so that I can easily read everything instead of using bookmarks and other links.
There’s a messy situation developing in Milwaukee which everyone’s surely heard of. Ben Sheets will get surgery on his right elbow to repair a torn flexor tendon (something which shouldn’t be surprising), so he’s not going to be able to pitch again until around August. The problem with that is that Sheets wants the Brewers to foot the bill for the surgery and they’re inevitably going to have to do it whether they like it or not.
Gord Ash and other Brewers insiders seem pissed — Tom Hardicourt keeps calling it a “mess,” and in general it’s a sticky situation, as both sides are (and should be) considerably frustrated with the other. Sheets passed up $12 million to not do anything except rehab until August, and has since found his value plummet due to his long list of medical problems to the point where nobody wants him anymore. The Brewers have to pay for a pitcher’s surgery that they’re not going to ever use in the future. They have to fix a broken product for someone else, and because of that, they lose two draft picks they would have gained if the top-notch free agent signed somewhere else.
What to make of this “mess?” Milwaukee should quietly shut up and pay for Benny’s surgery and try to keep him under the radar for the duration of his rehab. The Brewers have nothing to lose at this point by signing Sheets around the time his rehab is done to a cheap contract. I’m thinking something like 2 years, $7 million, with the salary backloaded for 2010. This assumes he can come back for the last two months of 2009. Here’s why I like this idea:
1) At this point in time, it’d be buying low on Sheets. His value has plummeted so much over the past couple months that signing him would be really cheap — especially for a pitcher who is as good as Sheets. The risk is low ($7 million dollars is nothing more than the Brewers have paid for Sheets in the past) and the reward could be high. If he can pitch 150 innings of ball in 2010 and help the Brewers for a month or two in ’09, then that price tag will be more than worth it because you know he’s going to put up wonderful numbers while trying to help the Brewers get back to the playoffs.
If Sheets does flame out and my predictions of more elbow and arm problems plaguing Sheets for the rest of his career, then it’s a definite loss, but it’s not as terrible of a risk as one might think. Friendly reminder here that Eric Gagne made $10 million last year and decided to be a terrible pitcher.
Considering that a win is going to be worth about $4 million this coming year, a 2-year, $8 million contract would mean that Sheets needs to be worth about 20 runs above replacement level in order to make the deal worth it. Ben’s WAR (wins above replacement) every year since 2002:
2002 – 3.8
2003 – 3.7
2004 – 8.0 (!!!)
2005 – 3.7
2006 – 4.0
2007 – 2.3
2008 – 4.6
In 2007 he threw 141 innings of injury-plagued, OK baseball (OK by Ben Sheets standards). If he throws 141 innings of good baseball over the next two years, he will be well worth the risk. Anything more is icing on the cake and would help soften not only the up-and-coming animosity between Sheets and the Brewers but will also get the Brewers back on the right track in terms of pitching. The only question is whether or not he would accept that kind of contract.
2) Considering his current status, I think he should accept it. He might still be bitter over refusing Milwaukee’s arbitration offer, but he’d be stupid not to take two years of guaranteed money considering how ready his body is to explode. You see it more and more among players these days — Ryan Braun for example decided to skip all of his arbitration years and take guaranteed money at a discounted rate from the Brewers. Evan Longoria is another recent example — and neither of these two guys have been especially injury-prone.
Guaranteed money for a guy like Ben Sheets would definitely be worth it since he’s going to be unemployed either way until August, and if he can muster a league-minimum salary this year (hey, it’s better than nothing) and know that he can earn another $7 million or so the next year, well, he’d be giving away even more money at this point. Even if Sheets’ rehab goes wonderfully and he pitches the last month and a half of 2009 pitching for a different club and goes back into the pitching market, I don’t see him getting much more money than $8 million per year anyways, since no team ever anymore will sign him to a long-term deal due to his extensive medical history. It’s guaranteed money for a not-guaranteed arm.
3) So what if my optimism is wrong, and Sheets is the next Mark Prior?
Then it’s an $8 million loss and a risk that in hindsight the Brewers shouldn’t have taken. These same risks have been taken with guys like Prior, Kerry Wood, or Mark Mulder and they’ve turned out horribly. With other injury-prone pitchers, like Rich Harden, taking risks on these guys banking can turn out well. It would suck if he didn’t turn out, but then again, it would suck if Sheets stuck the cost of his surgery on the Brewers and then the Cardinals got him for the stretch run in August and September.