We’re getting pretty close to the day where pitchers and catchers report for duty and people start anticipating the first day of spring instead of dreading the upcoming remaining month or so of cabin fever people in the upper midwest tend to experience.

We’re also getting pretty close to the day where Corey Hart could get ripped apart by the organization that employs him in an effort to save a million dollars. Hart is asking for $3.8 million while the Brewers offered $2.7 million; the hearing date is either the 17th or 18th — no more than a week away.

Hart is a career .277/.323/.485 hitter who finished 2008 below those numbers (mere .300 OBP) due to an absolutely miserable September (.173/.192/.245) that nearly “helped” Milwaukee choke away their playoff birth. Hart’s stats last year may not imply that he’s worth the $3.8 million he’s asking for, but when looking a little deeper, I wouldn’t mind the investment either way as long as certain circumstances happen.

Hart has never been a patient hitter with his tiny walk rate (4.2% in ’08, only 27 walks in 612 ABs), but he’s always been able to make up for that with a little extra meat in his swing. For the second straight season in 2008, he hit 20 homers, and with that big frame, has potential to amass more power as he gets older and works his way into the big leagues for good.

But his 2008 was a big regression in more than just his initial stats. His ISO shot down over 50 points into 2008 and his OBA went way down to .327, which is essentially league average for MLB — far below average for a supposed power-hitting corner outfielder. He was just barely above replacement level — with a 0.28 WPA, he wouldn’t deserve to be paid as much as even Milwaukee’s offered him. One main thing, to me, was the root of all Hart’s problems in the majors last year:

Outside swing pct.:
2006: 22.3%
2007: 25.7%
2008: 31.7%

Outside swing pct. measures the percentage of balls outside the zone that Hart swung at. 2006 can be considered a bit of a small sample size, but Hart’s consistently swinging at more pitches he shouldn’t be and that makes anyone a terrible hitter. Pitchers adapted to him by throwing him less fastballs that he could jump on and threw him a steady diet of sliders that dove low and outside and he bit every single time. Instead of taking some time off and calming himself down, he decided to add fuel to the fire right about at the point where Milwaukee began panicking last year about their playoff slide.

I’m not going to sit there and walk, though. I’ll eventually find it, and hopefully we’ll still be in it.”

So if Hart is such a poor hitter, why am I advocating him to be part of the team next year? Simple: because a great majority of his flaws can be corrected. Manager Ken Macha hinted when he was hired that he tends to delve a bit into statistical analysis and should be able to see the value in taking a walk and being patient. Pitchers throw Hart first-pitch strikes — whether he swings at them or not — more than almost any other hitter in the majors. If Hart can adjust his swing, tempo, and patience, he has the potential to take all of that early pressure off of him and he can become more relaxed of a hitter.

This just depends on whether or not hitting coach Dale Sveum will teach Hart to walk and not hack and whether or not Hart buys into the system. If Hart can take first pitches and be more selective at what he swings at, he can make a huge improvement in his swing and power and become an elite talent in the major leagues.

$3.8 million for a one-win player isn’t a bad bet either, and we can at least assume that Hart will attone for his miserable September and have a bounceback year anyway. Projections have him at about a .275/.330/.480 player, which makes me think he has nowhere to go but up. If Hart can harness his ability to take a pitch or two, he has a legitimate chance at becoming an elite hitter on the Brewers instead of an overrated corner outfielder. With the patience comes the higher on base percentage as well as the respect from pitchers who will start throwing more fastballs to Hart that he can send to the gaps. It all depends on the coaching he receives in spring training — he needs to drop the hacker mentality.

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Brewer stuff, Uncategorized, milwaukee brewers by Cody