A quick look at the 2009 lineup
Using the Baseball Musings Lineup Simulation tool, here’s a quick look at what the offense will do in 2009.
Note that these numbers are all CHONE projections, with one objection: I’m predicting Bill Hall will do much better than his projections, considering he’s due for a BABIP correction year and I have a good feeling his LASIK surgery will be able to make him see the ball better, and post a Denard Span-like transformation. I’ve shown why Hall’s problems are inherently linked with his ability to see the ball already right here. I’ve beefed up his numbers a little bit to adjust for what I think will happen…
5.2 runs per game is obviously unrealistic considering how odd the top lineups are. So, let’s adjust for the reduced performance that lineup will have. 5.05 runs per game sounds like an appropriate approximation.
Of course, there’s more. This isn’t the lineup that’s going to be playing every single day. Whenever J.J. Hardy needs a day off, he’ll be replaced by the soft-hitting Craig Counsell. Sometimes, Chris Duffy or Tony Gwynn Jr. (whichever one) is going to start in center. Brad Nelson might take some at-bats away from Ryan Braun. So, if we adjust playing time further, we amount to about 5 total runs per game with our lineup.
5 runs per game is nothing to scoff at. That’s 810 runs throughout the duration of the entire season. For reference, they scored 750 runs all of last season. Depending on how well the patchwork starting rotation holds up, we may very well have an underrated team here. 800 runs isn’t a small cup of coffee, and that could easily carry a team to a .500 record. If Braden Looper and
Of course, this is an inexact way to look at an inexact projection system, but it’s interesting to think about nonetheless. If the Brewers can score 40 more runs than last year, that just might do enough to keep them in the playoff hunt.
There are a couple more significant things that happened today: Ryan Braun left last night’s game when he lost a line drive in the lights and had it hit him in the thumb. The Brewers seem to be being precautionary about it, but it’s always concerning when the star player instantly heads to the X-ray room to look at a thumb. At least it’s not his side that’s been giving him problems, but nothing but bad can come out of a hurt thumb in baseball. Further bulletins as events warrant.
In addition, The Brewers cut Mike Lamb and added Casey McGehee to the team. Lamb was originally slated to be Bill Hall’s backup until McGehee decided to tear the cover off the ball this spring, hitting .370 with 6 home runs this spring.
McGehee seems like an average prospect at best, batting a lifetime .757 OPS in the minor leagues with average D at the hot corner. CHONE thinks he’ll hit .252/.312/.369, which is pretty awful for a defensively average third baseman. Marcel is the only other projection system that has him going anywhere above that, OPSing just under .730 for the season. This is not the production you want out of a third baseman, and he’s also 27, so he should improve just slightly as he enters his peak years as a big leaguer.
Meanwhile, Lamb is a much older player who is projected to bat much better. His fielding statistics are difficult to determine exactly, as he posted an UZR/150 of over 25 in 2005 with the Astros at third base, while doing almost the same on the negative end of the spectrum last year in Minnesota. It’s unsure exactly how much of that is caused either by a small sample size or even the rock-hard Metrodome astroturf, but it’s safe to assume his old age is catching up to his range somehow and he’s a defensive liability at first base. Neither player is really going to be worth many more wins than the other, especially considering the limited playing time they’ll get being Bill Hall’s backup.
So then, why would they decide to go with McGehee over Lamb? Lamb’s already spoken out about being demoted and says he’s none too pleased with the situation; ultimately he’d obviously prefer to find a role on a big league club somewhere and would rather be traded than sent to Nashville. Meanwhile, McGehee still had minor league options left and it would have been safe for the Brewers to keep him in the minors this year to start.
This sacrifices the depth the Brewers have at third base for this season. It takes an unnecessary risk (losing Lamb to waivers) when the risk could have been avoided by keeping both of them. Now, the third-base bench only goes 2-deep instead of having an extra option to call up in the minors in case someone gets hurt. Now, Lamb could take a job somewhere else, instead of McGehee staying put in the minors and waiting to be called up when an injury happens.
Of course, this might all be moot anyways, since Mat Gamel is only going to need another year or so of seasoning before we see him in a Brewers uniform.