Some thoughts 3 weeks in
There’s only so long I can put off evaluating the performance of the Brewers so far under the excuse of it being an absurdly small sample size and thus totally useless to look at throughout the season. 3 weeks still isn’t nearly enough of a sample size to make me ever legitimately wonder if a player is having a breakout year or has fallen off a cliff — that’s why I’m waiting to say anything about my impression of the team’s direction and value until at least two months or so into the season.
With that said, the 8-10 start this season isn’t anything to be worried about. Any record this early in the season is too early to think anything of — just take a look at the Pittsburgh Pirates this year as an example. PECOTA projections think it will be business as usual for the Pirates in 2009, making them a 97-loss team for yet another year. However, so far this year they’re 11-7 with the best pythagorean record in the major leagues. The team is clearly playing over their heads right now and I’ll trust an advanced computer projection system over an 18-game span where not even every pitcher has had a chance to make four starts yet. Keep in mind the Brewers as of May 18th last year were four games below .500 and they ended up making the postseason. Even my recent post on the team’s OBP doesn’t actually contain any merit because of this.
That’s one of the reasons I said we should stick with Jeff Suppan when he was awful his first two starts.
However, here’s what I’ve seen so far:
-J.J. Hardy has been really unlucky so far. Through his first 16 games, Hardy hit a paltry .177/.235/.339 with 15 strikeouts and 5 walks, making him a virtual black hole in the middle of the lineup. Hardy is typically a hot-and-cold hitter, but I’d argue he’s doing alright with himself. He’s suffered from a paltry .182 BABIP and his LD%, while it is lower than it was in 2008, it’s not enough to be significant (14.6 to 15.5) and his GB% is lower than normal and he’s raised both his FB% and HR/FB rate, he should be doing approximately the same as he did last year. Unfortunately those balls that he’s hitting hard are finding gloves. That will change at some time throughout the season.
-Corey Hart has changed his approach, and it’s going to make him much better. In 2008, Hart had 27 walks over the entire season. So far, in 2009, he already has 9. That puts him on pace to walk 82-83 times this season. Now, I don’t expect that number to stay that high, but considering his recent approach of taking a pitch or two and the added ability to lay off an outside slider I think new hitting coach Dale Sveum is helping him recognize pitches and become a good, patient hitter. A good Corey Hart is a good way to start a repeat playoff season.
-Mark DiFelice is my favorite pitcher. He only cemented his position when he came into the game in the 10th inning on Saturday night with the bases loaded compliments of Carlos Villanueva and got a flyout off the bat of Miguel Tejada and held a one-run lead the next inning to earn a huge win. Not to mention his sparkling 2.84 ERA from the bullpen has been one of the few bright spots so far. A little look into his statistics prove that he’s a legit player, too: 11/3 K:BB ratio and a 0.96 WHIP in 2009. Coming from the bullpen, however, he does hold a full 100% left-on-base percentage, so his ERA might be due for a little blip up, he’s definitely got the pitching skills to become a major part of the bullpen this year. If only the Brewers still had time to stretch him out and turn him into a starter…
-My Bill Hall Fan Club status is still a little tentative. Without the Bill Hall-patented “epic blinks” Hall seems to be seeing the ball much better than last year, raising his OPS by .100 points and turning into a .341 wOBA player at third and his small-sample sized defense has made him much improved over last year’s Bill Hall. However, this increase in average likely is related to his far increased BABIP, when in fact .333 is on the other side of .300 as last year’s numbers. He’s doing a marginally better job at seeing pitches while keeping his other peripheral stats virtually the same. The judgment is still out there to see if he’s actually improved his hitting ability or his increased average is simply a product of luck. Stay tuned.