Awesome.
From pools of xylophone clear
From caves of memory
I saw the children at heart
That we once used to be
Borne on foaming seahorse herd
Compose with trumpeting shell
- XTC – Mermaid Smiled
The Brewers have put together one of the more memorable starts in recent history, riding a current 21-5 monthly hot streak that has propelled them to a three-game lead in the NL Central and a busty 11 games over .500 less than two months into the season. They’ve done it with being awesome in general: the fourth-best OPS+ in the NL as well as the third best ERA+ so far — only the Mets and Dodgers can argue that their team stats trump Milwaukee’s and they just happen to be the other best teams in the NL.
Many of the stats this year compared to last year’s team are really inflated in a couple of key areas. OBP is the only stat that’s really jumped at me offensively, as a 27-point jump in OBP tells me that walking once in awhile has become a high priority and that leads to more baserunners and eventually runs. 5.11 runs/game is much better than 4.63. On the pitching side, the pitchers’ ERA has stayed virtually the same, however the team’s WHIP is much higher due to an increase in walks: Brewer pitchers this season have issued over 3% more walks per batter than they did in 2008. In other words, perhaps the pitching is due to regress a little bit. Perhaps we need to take this start with a grain of salt.
So without further adieu, let’s take a look a couple players who could see some regression over the next few months of play:
Dave Bush
Bushy this year has thrown 53 innings of excellent baseball, posting a 3.74 ERA and 1.08 WHIP and 38 strikeouts to only 11 walks. Before last night’s start, however, his deeper statistics seem to tell a different story: so far, he’s regressed in many of his main statistics last year and has only gotten lucky. His FB% has shot way up, GB% way down, and a not-insignificant increase in LD% means that his pitchers are more meaty than they should be. What’s mainly keeping him afloat is luck — a .243 BABIP and loomingly large 75% LOB rate mean that he’s benefited from timely outs and lucky baseball paths. This all has led to a 4.86 FIP, meaning that if he continues to pitch the way he is, 5 IP 6 ER and a big, fat L won’t be an uncommon occurrence.
Craig Counsell
It’s not a secret by now that Counsell has never been a beefy hitter, but he’s been pretty hot to start the year so far, batting way above his .256/.345/.346 career line, batting .324/.413/.456. His good hitting has been due to a hot streak and seeing the ball well — his general swing percentage is down significantly from his career, but all of his contact percentages are up. This means that Counsell is being much more selective at the pitches that he swings at, and when he does, he’s not swinging and missing. He’s also getting a little extra punch from a high .356 BABIP, which is getting him a little extra beef. Watch for him to regress back to career norms, but if his pitch selection stays the way it is, I’d be happy to see him stay at 2B for the rest of the year.
Ryan Braun
Even my favorite player is prone to benefiting from a little good luck every now and then. Braun has put up some crazy good statistics on the back. Brauny’s been ridiculous so far, putting up a .323/.451/.571/1.023 line with 8 dingers and a surprising 5:6 K/BB ratio. I really thought he’d strike out more. Braun also has an inflated BABIP (.368) and has a couple of other funky things that are odd with what you’d expect.
Braun’s line drive and fly ball percentages are way down from last year, which tells me that his stats should regress from last year, not go the other way around. What’s made him so effective however is that he has a wonderfully high HR/fly ball rate (25%), which definitely is not sustainable throughout the rest of the season. In other words, his ground balls are finding holes, as evidenced by his high BABIP, and his fly balls are finding the seats. Which is just fine with me. But expect him to come back down or go back into a slump for a little while.
Braden Looper
The biggest free agent signing the Brewers made last year has done a pretty good job so far for the Crew, going 4-2 with a 4.26 ERA — even when Blooper’s not on or doing too well, he’s kept the Brewers in games instead of totally imploding, and the Brewer offense has generally done a pretty good job of keeping him afloat recordwise. However, Blooper has benefited from a lower BABIP as well (.285) and his FIP (5.48) is the worst it’s been for him since his opening year in 1998 with the Cardinals. The reason his BABIP has been so bad is that he’s dramatically increased his walks and home runs so far this year, which has in turn increased his WHIP. I half-expect Looper to cut down on his walks and become better through the year, otherwise the Brewer offense may not be able to pick him up for the rest of the season.