Brewer Paradise Lost

Jesse Motiff just penned a column on why the Brewers’ future shouldn’t contain J.J. Hardy. Motiff lists a myriad of reasons mostly centered around Alcides Escobar coming in as a valuable replacement should Hardy be traded.

The problem with that train of logic is that Hardy is one of the best players in MLB, and Escobar is not quite the highly touted prospect everyone seems to think he is. Let’s take a look at what Motiff says:

“Critics of Escobar will say that he doesn’t have the power to be a top shortstop at the major league level. I disagree with that completely. Power is an attribute that is a lot more than just the number of home runs a player hits.

While Escobar likely won’t be a home run hitter at any point of his career, he does get a ton of extra base hits. In 60 games in 2009, Escobar has 16 doubles, three triples, and three home runs. That’s a slugging percentage of .436, a very respectable number by anyone’s standards.”

What he fails to mention is that his .436 slugging comes from AAA and he has the benefit of a .358 BABIP, which should come back down. With a 3:1 K/BB ratio and 3 homers in 243 ABs it’s pretty obvious that he’s not a major leaguer yet. His MLE (Major League Equivalence, which basically takes into account the difference in talent from AAA to MLB) makes him a .271/.300/.364/.664 hitter. In other words: his bat’s nowhere near ready and it probably won’t be for some time. To compare, Hardy’s OPS this season is .642, and it’s pretty obvious by now he’s a much better hitter than he’s been so far.

Hardy’s also the third-best fielding shortstop so far this season and his bat is sure to improve since we haven’t seen his patented hot streak yet. Remember, Hardy OPSed .821 last year. Escobar would OPS in the .640s. Is Escobar’s defense really going to be that much better?

For the record, here’s the other thing Motiff says that’s a tad ridiculous:

The more likely scenario will see Doug Melvin trading Hardy this winter for either a middle of the rotation pitcher or a quality arm in the bullpen. This will give the Brewers added depth should Manny Parra not figure out how to pitch at a big league level or another arm in a bullpen that will again see some turnover.

Hardy is much, much more valuable than a “middle of the rotation pitcher.” The Brewers have three of them in Dave Bush, Braden Looper, and Manny Parra, although Parra’s been pretty AAA as of this point in the season.

Do you expect to see Hardy as the Brewers shortstop next season? In 2011? 2014?

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Brewer stuff, milwaukee brewers by Cody