Clutchest players this season, and more
So, The Hardball Times has a neat stat looking at how “cluch” each hitter has been so far this year. “Clutch,” in this case, is produce from Bill James’ formula. I’ll let THT explain:
“Clutch” is the name we’ve given to the portion of Bill James’s Runs Created formula that includes the impact of a batter’s batting average with runners in scoring position and the number of home runs with runners on. The specific formula is Hits with RISP minus overall BA times at bats with RISP, plus HR with runners on minus (all HR/AB) times at bats with runners on. This stat is not a definitive description of “clutch hitting,” just one way of looking at it.
Anyways, here’s what we have so far:
I would have thought J.J. Hardy and Mat Gamel were going to be worse and Mike Cameron would have done much better. Even though this is a fairly crude way of measuring clutch (hitting with RISP is weighted the same in a 9-0 game in the 3rd inning as it is in a tie game in the 9th), it’s still early enough in the season where these stats could nearly flip by the end of the year and I wouldn’t be really that surprised.
Another thing you may have noticed is the pitches/plate appearance stat in that image. P/PA is a useful way of looking at a hitter’s patience, and a hitter’s patience is a useful way to evaluate a player. More pitches seen generally mean more walks, and OBP is obviously a good thing. Here are P/PA stats for every Brewers player up through last night:
Considering the frequency that Hardy looks at the first pitch (which is pretty much every single time), I’m surprised to see that he’s in the middle of the pack in terms of P/PA. This also shows so far why I’m still really high on Mat Gamel.
One of the biggest reasons for the Brewers success this year is due to the Brewers ability to take a walk and get on base. While their batting average and slugging percentages have remained basically the same throughout the year, they’ve had a huge spike in OBP which can only be attributed to an increase in walks. The more pitches you see, the more walks you get. Simple as that.
On the pitching side, THT also has a database on the team’s xFIP this year. Check it out:
Just judging from this, I think Doug Melvin is going to make a trade for another starter. Seth McClung isn’t fit to be the 5th starter. Now that Erik Bedard is on the DL, expect another Dave Bush (in the form of Jarrod Washburn or Brad Penny) to join the rotation near the end of this month.
McClung has been one of the luckiest pitchers so far considering his secondary statistics compared to his ERA. If any pitcher is going to do that, though, it’s Chucky — he’s a very lights on/lights off type of pitcher. Outings where he can locate both his fastball and his curveball usually result in scoreless innings where he can hardly be touched. When his pitches aren’t located, he walks people and gets hit like a punching bag. Ken Macha should know when he’s not pitching at 100% and yank him accordingly. Better bullpen arms should be able to clean up his mess at a rate better than he’d be able to.
This post was really disjointed. That’s OK though — the charts here are what’s interesting about it.