The Future or the Present?
Some of this will be quite obvious to most serious Brewers observers, but I thought I’d jump in with both feet and take a peek at who the Brewers have under contract now, and who they’ll have in two years. The Halladay rumors have me interested to know whether it’s time to make a big move now, and sacrifice the future, or if the team’s secure for quite a while.
Catcher:
Angel Salome is slotted to be catching in a few years, and maybe even next year, if Kendall doesn’t re-sign. I see no reason why that won’t be the case. Any prospect is a question mark, but it doesn’t appear to me that there’s much to worry about regarding Salome. That, and having Jonathan Lucroy available if Salome doesn’t make it is also heartening.
First Base:
Prince Fielder will not be a Brewer in 2012. I’d put money on it. The reason: Scott Boras. There will be no hometown discount, and there will be a lot of money in Prince Fielder’s pockets. This is where I have Gamel slotted in past 2011 if his defense isn’t up to par. Otherwise, I’m sure there will be a veteran fill-in available for a decent price if there isn’t a prospect that is ready by that point.
Second Base:
We can hope that Rickie Weeks recovers well from a second major wrist injury, but I’ll admit I have my doubts. I’m a big Weeks backer, but I find it hard to bank on him coming back strong, especially since he took a lot of time to recover from his first one. Brett Lawrie’s slotted to show up sometime around here for his first real taste of the bigs, which makes me feel much more confident about the position going forward, as I think one of the two will be able to contribute consistently. I highly doubt Felipe Lopez is more than a rental.
Shortstop:
I feel much better about this than I did earlier in the year, when I had doubts about Escobar’s hitting ability. He won’t be a star with the stick in the bigs, but I think he can hold his own soon enough. That makes what happens to JJ Hardy a bit less important. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, he’s eligible for free agency at the end of 2010. One wonders if he has a lot of value if he struggles the rest of this year and next. On the other hand, if he plays well, he’s due a big payday that the Brewers may be unable to afford. If the team doesn’t do so well next year, expect to hear a lot of Hardy to (insert AL East and/or high payroll team here) rumors.
Third Base:
Who’d have thought Casey McGehee would make such a claim to third base? Maybe it’s a mirage, but this gives Gamel a touch more time to get ready, at the very least. I can’t say for sure if he’s sticking around third for long, especially with Gamel nipping at his heels, but even so, McGehee may have to be the torchbearer at second in 2010, if Weeks doesn’t come back quickly. He’s also an option to come back to third should Gamel struggle with his glove. All in all, a very nice problem to have. Taylor Green is also a potential option in the future.
Outfield:
Ryan Braun is locked up for the next six years, which will hopefully be good ones for him. Even if, somehow, that doesn’t work out, Melvin made a great move getting him locked down to under-market prices for three of his free-agent years. Cameron will be long gone by then, sadly, and Corey Hart will be in his last year of arbitration in 2011. I think Hart’s leveled off a bit, but he’s still a major league caliber player. I’ll admit to being worried about center, it’s something Melvin’s going to have to find a solution for, even if it means moving Hart over and finding a fill in right fielder. Lorenzo Cain sticks out to me as the only possible prospect option there that I know of to this point.
Starting Pitching:
Even if somehow the Brewers swing something for Halladay, they’ll lose him after 2010, most likely. Suppan will also likely be gone at that point, and I wouldn’t count on Braden Looper either. Dave Bush is also a free agent after 2010. Gallardo and Parra may well still be up and running, but I’m not even going to try to project a 2012 starting rotation.
Relief Pitching:
Ditto here, but I’ll just mention who’s tied up through 2011. Carlos Villanueva will have his final arbitration year then, and Todd Coffey will just become a free agent for the first time. Mark DiFelice will still be under team control if he’s not moved, but he’ll also be of an age where not much can be rightfully expected of him. Tim Dillard will be a bit younger, and also under team control, although I do wonder what the team has planned for him.
What’s the point of all this? This is the kind of thing that Doug Melvin already has in mind as he’s negotiating with Toronto. Most likely he has different views on some of the players than I do, especially the prospects, but the point is, its decision time. How much of this future does he give up? Does he trust his young pitchers to keep developing to replace the old arms? Does he trust the young prospects in the field to become what we think they can become? How much more money can he expect from Mark Attanasio for payroll in the future? If the answers to those questions are no, no, and not much, don’t be surprised if Melvin sells the farm for this chance. If the answers are yes, yes, and quite a bit, there’s no way he’s risking the future. I’ll bet that the answer is somewhere in the middle. This makes the next 10 days very interesting indeed, as we know Melvin at least believes enough in the team to sacrifice some minor prospects for a shot at the playoffs, due to the Lopez trade. Your guess is as good as mine as to what will actually happen.