Should we be missing Mike Maddux?

July 29, 2009

Milwaukee Brewers Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), of everyone who has significant innings, 2009:

Trevor Hoffman – 2.54
Todd Coffey – 2.88
Mark DiFelice – 3.58
Yovani Gallardo – 3.92
Mitch Stetter – 3.98
Carlos Villanueva – 4.65
Manny Parra – 4.69
Jeff Suppan – 5.65
Braden Looper – 5.7
Dave Bush – 5.82
Seth McClung – 6.14

Milwaukee Brewers FIP of these pitchers throughout their career:

Trevor Hoffman – 2.99
Todd Coffey – 4.26
Mark DiFelice – 3.84
Yovani Gallardo – 3.72
Mitch Stetter – 4.17
Carlos Villanueva – 4.62
Manny Parra – 4.24
Jeff Suppan – 4.83
Braden Looper – 4.39
Dave Bush – 4.60
Seth McClung – 5.41

Merge the two together now. 2009′s FIP minus their career FIP:

Trevor Hoffman: -0.49
Todd Coffey: -1.38
Mark DiFelice: -0.26

Yovani Gallardo: 0.20
Mitch Stetter: -0.19
Carlos Villanueva: 0.03
Manny Parra: 0.45
Jeff Suppan: 0.82
Braden Looper: 1.31
Dave Bush: 1.22
Seth McClung: 0.73

Virtually every single starter on the Brewers’ staff has declined significantly in his secondary statistics this year. The great majority of these increased FIP numbers are largely due to the starters walking more people while the strikeouts remain the same. Manny Parra’s walk increase has been well-publicized, but the huge jumps made by Suppan, Looper, and even Dave Bush have been just as alarming. Did you know that Suppan and Looper are the two worst pitchers in the majors right now, according to WAR (Wins Above Replacement) levels right now?

If only one, or even two pitchers had a dramatic increase in walks and a subsequent implosion I wouldn’t be too concerned. But when your entire rotation has regressed pretty significantly suspicions should begin to arise that there’s a teamwide philosophy problem. Bill Castro is the new Brewers pitching coach this season after earning the job with 18 years as the bullpen coach. I’m thinking Castro is telling his pitchers to never give in, but whatever is the case the pitchers aren’t performing. It’s really starting to get ridiculous.

Meanwhile, down in Texas, the Rangers improved upon a staff that was abysmal last year with a teamwide 5.37 ERA to a stunningly good pitching staff with a 4.16 ERA. Mike Maddux recently switched from Milwaukee to Texas. He’s getting brilliant results from plugin pieces Scott Feldman and Vicente Padilla. Given, there’s been a few lucky pitchers and shifting Michael Young to third base created a much better defense, but dropping the ERA nearly a point with virtually the same pitching staff has also got to be part of a better organizational philosophy. At least, I’m convinced anyways, since Brewers starting pitching has been so much worse than normal this year.

So, what do you think? Is Billy Castro the problem? What should the Brewers do to turn down the walks? Are guys like Suppan and Looper just totally flaming out?

2 Responses to “Should we be missing Mike Maddux?”

  1. [...] hardly a cause for concern. Not only are the starters much worse and pitch many more innings, but the difference between Trevor Hoffman and Todd Coffey and Chris Smith and Seth McClung is pretty significant. A large [...]

  2. [...] I’ve written about Bill Castro before, so I personally like the move. Castro didn’t do the best job of training the pitchers and it showed in their peripheral stats. They brought in AAA-Nashville’s pitching coach [...]

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