2009
Barring some very good performances against playoff-bound teams in the last four games of the season, the Brewers are bound to finish up a disappointing season after beginning the season with high expectations and spending the first half of the season in first place in the division.
It took a hot streak by the Cardinals and some really terrible Brewer pitching in late July to shift the balance of power, but if you remember at the beginning of the season most people in the know predicted the Brewers to finish right around .500 after not being able to sign C.C. Sabathia during the offseason. I was one of those people. When the pitching was good early on in the season, everyone suddenly had expectations to be in the thick of the playoff race come September. All of a sudden they regressed backwards quite a bit and it’s been a disappointing 2009.
What most casual fans will find irritating is that the starting pitching won’t change, with the exception of Braden Looper, who’s been so godawful this season there’s a pretty high chance they won’t pick up his $6 million mutual option. However, the core of this year’s starting rotation (Gallardo-Bush-Parra-Suppan) will almost for sure be back next year barring a couple unexpected dealings.
Gallardo is obviously the staff ace, and is cost-controlled for awhile. Bush is still under arbitration, and an offseason of rest will do him good and clear the recent struggles out of his mind — he’s an obvious lock for a rotation spot, as he’s still under arbitration. Quite a bit has been made of Manny Parra’s struggles this season, but he’s still incredibly cheap and is a prime candidate for a bounceback year in 2010.
That makes three super cheap contracts for three pitchers (probably about $6 million of salary combined will go towards these three pitchers), and if we expect bounceback years from both Bush and Parra, that’s not a lot of cash invested in three young, quality pitchers.
Jeff Suppan, on the other hand, is an albatross contract ($12.5 million next year) who’s going to stay on the team just because Milwaukee has no way to get rid of him, barring some lucky goldstrike where some dumb team wants to take on the contract of an old, quickly-declining pitcher who wasn’t really that good in the first place. Unless Mark A. wants to avoid investment embarassment, though, Suppan is still a starter.*
Anyways, we should expect to see vast improvements out of two of those guys (Bush and Parra), and with the only problems with the offense being who’s playing where, the Brewers should have a legitimate shot to contend next year. Prince and Braun are staples of a fantastic offense. If the pitchers can combine to throw a 4.5 ERA next year, which isn’t spectacular by any means, the Brewers should be playoff bound.
*One of the things I’ve truly never understood in management is the willingness to admit a mistake. Everyone knew the Suppan contract was a terrible idea from the beginning… and yet, next year, the Brewers will inevitably throw Jeff out there every 5th day because they’re investing 1/8 of their payroll into him.
Why wouldn’t upper management just say, “Hey, fan base, we made a mistake, and we’re willing to admit it,” and DFA Jeff Suppan or trade him for a bucket of baseballs. There are cheaper pitchers in the minor league system that can be brought up or other alternative options that will win the team more ballgames.
I mean, Milwaukee could pick up a different free agent pitcher or find someone else (Carlos Villanueva?) to take the ball every 5th day, and their chances of winning would increase by quite a bit… considering next year I think the Brewers will be in the thick of the wild card race again, the difference between a 5.32 ERA pitcher and a 4.6 ERA pitcher is really, really relevant.
Unfortunately, baseball executives don’t want to admit public embarassment over their signings so this will never happen.
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