Well the Crew shook things up Wednesday, sending J.J. Hardy to Nashville, firing pitching coach Bill Castro, and DFA’d Bill Hall. They’ve been teetering on the end of desperation for awhile now and getting rid of the pitching coach and worst player on the team were two moves that pretty much had to be made, although shipping Hardy down definitely was the biggest surprise of the bunch.

I’ve written about Bill Castro before, so I personally like the move. Castro didn’t do the best job of training the pitchers and it showed in their peripheral stats. They brought in AAA-Nashville’s pitching coach

Hardy has been in a seemingly season-long slump, hitting only .229/.300/.367, a far cry from his career line of .262/.323/.431 line. His hitting definitely has slumped, and it seems like he’s hitting a ton of fly balls to the warning track and just hasn’t been able to put it together yet this season.

On the surface, this seems like a move to get Hardy back on track and to get Alcides Escobar his first extended look at big league pitching in a move for 2010. The most probable course of action I initially thought was going to happen was that Hardy will work on some things in AAA for a couple weeks, then hopefully come back and rake in the majors again to raise his trade stock for the offseason. It seems like a logical gamble, especially since Escobar could use some at-bats against major league pitching, but it’s risky nevertheless — to send someone down to the minors is not the best way to get the best return for Hardy if or when he gets traded.

I’d argue though that to send J.J. back down to AAA and leave him there for the rest of the year is the best thing to do to raise his trade stock for this offseason.

Hardy was on the 40-man roster at the beginning of the 2005 season. If he spends the rest of his time in AAA this year, he’ll have less than 5 years of major league service time at the end of next year, so then he’ll be under team control for 2011 as well. Considering that teams by now should have a good idea that Hardy’s going to have a bounceback season, he’ll still be viewed as a valuable piece. Keeping him in AAA to get him two more years of cheap service time for another team is much more valuable to a team than raising his stock a little bit for just one year of a cheap shortstop.

That’s a sly move by Doug Melvin if that’s what he’s planning to do. Some team will give up as least one major-league caliber starting pitcher for JJ next year, as his defensive numbers htis year are as good as ever and he’s continually improving on that front. A team like the Red Sox will still give up a pretty penny for two years of a cost-controlled quality shortstop and could even buy out those two years of arbitration and free agency with a long term deal if he’s dealt over there.

The difference between two years of a cost-controlled shortstop and just one is monumental. I imagine for a year of J.J. a team would be willing to give up a marginally good pitcher like Jason Marquis; for two years, we’re talking about a potential stud prospect or actual quality pitcher, which could amount to a good 3 wins next year.

Anyways I hope that’s what the Brewers do.

Milwaukee Brewers Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), of everyone who has significant innings, 2009:

Trevor Hoffman – 2.54
Todd Coffey – 2.88
Mark DiFelice – 3.58
Yovani Gallardo – 3.92
Mitch Stetter – 3.98
Carlos Villanueva – 4.65
Manny Parra – 4.69
Jeff Suppan – 5.65
Braden Looper – 5.7
Dave Bush – 5.82
Seth McClung – 6.14

Milwaukee Brewers FIP of these pitchers throughout their career:

Trevor Hoffman – 2.99
Todd Coffey – 4.26
Mark DiFelice – 3.84
Yovani Gallardo – 3.72
Mitch Stetter – 4.17
Carlos Villanueva – 4.62
Manny Parra – 4.24
Jeff Suppan – 4.83
Braden Looper – 4.39
Dave Bush – 4.60
Seth McClung – 5.41

Merge the two together now. 2009′s FIP minus their career FIP:

Trevor Hoffman: -0.49
Todd Coffey: -1.38
Mark DiFelice: -0.26
Yovani Gallardo: 0.20
Mitch Stetter: -0.19
Carlos Villanueva: 0.03
Manny Parra: 0.45
Jeff Suppan: 0.82
Braden Looper: 1.31
Dave Bush: 1.22
Seth McClung: 0.73

Virtually every single starter on the Brewers’ staff has declined significantly in his secondary statistics this year. The great majority of these increased FIP numbers are largely due to the starters walking more people while the strikeouts remain the same. Manny Parra’s walk increase has been well-publicized, but the huge jumps made by Suppan, Looper, and even Dave Bush have been just as alarming. Did you know that Suppan and Looper are the two worst pitchers in the majors right now, according to WAR (Wins Above Replacement) levels right now?

If only one, or even two pitchers had a dramatic increase in walks and a subsequent implosion I wouldn’t be too concerned. But when your entire rotation has regressed pretty significantly suspicions should begin to arise that there’s a teamwide philosophy problem. Bill Castro is the new Brewers pitching coach this season after earning the job with 18 years as the bullpen coach. I’m thinking Castro is telling his pitchers to never give in, but whatever is the case the pitchers aren’t performing. It’s really starting to get ridiculous.

Meanwhile, down in Texas, the Rangers improved upon a staff that was abysmal last year with a teamwide 5.37 ERA to a stunningly good pitching staff with a 4.16 ERA. Mike Maddux recently switched from Milwaukee to Texas. He’s getting brilliant results from plugin pieces Scott Feldman and Vicente Padilla. Given, there’s been a few lucky pitchers and shifting Michael Young to third base created a much better defense, but dropping the ERA nearly a point with virtually the same pitching staff has also got to be part of a better organizational philosophy. At least, I’m convinced anyways, since Brewers starting pitching has been so much worse than normal this year.

So, what do you think? Is Billy Castro the problem? What should the Brewers do to turn down the walks? Are guys like Suppan and Looper just totally flaming out?