UPDATED BELOW!!!!!!

With all the hubbub surrounding Roy Halladay I thought I’d chime in (again) on trading for him.

As of right now the Crew is 2.5 games out of first place in the Central and 2.5 pitchers out of a halfway decent starting rotation. Getting Halladay would be pretty much exactly the same as C.C. Sabathia in the “pitching godsend” department. I would hope that Halladay would propel the Brewers to a second-straight playoff berth,

But are you ready for years of mediocrity afterward? Take a look at Brewers 2010 contracts if Halladay’s traded:

Halladay: $15.75m
Jeff Suppan: $12.5m
Prince Fielder: $9m
Bill Hall: $8.4m
David Riske: $4.5m
Total: $50.15m

Assuming the Brewers’ payroll sticks around $85-90 million, you have 60% of your payroll stuck in five players. None of this even takes into account the arbitration salaries of Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, Dave Bush, etc. Of course this assumes Alcides Escobar is traded to the Blue Jays, as Hardy wouldn’t since Toronto wants the younger, cheaper talent.

With the money we wouldn’t save, we’d definitely wouldn’t be able to resign Mike Cameron or Jason Kendall when they hit free agency at the end of the year, meaning there would be a replacement-level CF and Mike Rivera behind the plate to begin 2010. In addition, next year’s rotation would be Halladay, Suppan, Parra (IF he’s not traded to the Jays), Bush, and Gallardo with no available depth in AAA and no prospects to speak of or depth in AAA in case someone gets injured. That rotation looks good on paper, but the only pitcher without an injury history is Halladay. I wouldn’t trust it to last an entire season.

The current core of young talent the Brewers probably won’t keep (Hart, Hardy, maybe even Weeks) begins to phase out at the beginning of 2011, so the Brewers could be entering a rebuilding mode if their current prospects take the Jeremy Jeffress route and don’t pan out the way they planned them to. They’ll be Blue Jays if the Brewers get Halladay, meaning that a prolonged slump in 2011 is inevitable. Are you prepared to sacrifice the well-being of the ballclub 2-3 years down the road if the Brewers try to add 1-2 wins to this year’s team? Is 1-2 wins going to be enough to win a mediocre division in 2009?

I couldn’t tell you that, but throwing away millions of dollars in worthwhile talent to satisfy this year’s needs aren’t worth it in the long run. It’s too much of a long shot at this point to justify trading for Halladay; if the Brewers didn’t have as many holes as they do now the trade would definitely make sense.

One thing that’s never been mentioned was how awful last year’s offseason went for Milwaukee. Remember how C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets were going to net the Brewers 4 first round draft picks in last year’s draft. After both Mark Teixiera and Sabathia both signed with the Yankees, an odd MLB rule only netted the Brew a supplemental first rounder. When nobody signed Sheets because of his injury, the Brewers didn’t get any compensation. Going 1/4 is never going to help bolster a weakening farm system.

Trading for Halladay would turn the 2011 Brewers into the 2001 Brewers, basically.

UPDATE: Reports are just confirming that Matt Holliday was just traded to St. Louis for a package of prospects including Brett Wallace. This trade makes the Cardinals without question a legitimate contender and sacrifices their future; Wallace is an up-and-coming phenom. More reason to hang on to prospects now, because in 2011, this division is going to be even more decidedly mediochre. Neither the Cubs nor the Astros have farm systems either, so in a couple years it may be a three-horse race between the Reds, Brewers, and Pirates.

Recently posted article by Tom H. Dave Bush struggled in his outing last night and complained of arm fatigue after being erratic and awful for AA-Huntsville last night.

That means Mike Burns will make a start. If he’s out for any extended period of time, maybe even I’d advocate trading for a nice pitcher.

Just some things to think about as we reach the midway point of the season…

*** Milwaukee’s spent the majority of the first half playing slightly above their record. However their recent 3-8 June Swoon has them at the All-Star Break with a negative pythagorean record. BP’s playoff odds say the Brewers only have a 20% chance to make the playoffs despite being 2 1/2 games out of first place.

BP’s playoff odds basically combine the team’s current record and projects their pythagorean record for the rest of the season. Since the Brewers have scored approximately as many runs as they’ve given up, they should be expected to have a .500 record over the rest of the year, according to BP. An 83-win team won’t make the postseason; they’ll either need some luck or better play in order to capture a playoff birth.

*** With that said, this team isn’t as bad as their June has been, and they should pick it up. Most of Manny Parra’s struggles may be behind him, as a fresh look at AAA have seemingly given him more confidence in his pitches — he should return back to the form we expected him soon. Dave Bush is coming back from an injury and pitched really well in a rehab assignment, so there’s no reason to believe he won’t be back to his form.

Remember that when the rotation is back to full strength it will be the same rotation that helped the Brewers get 18 wins in May and a 3.85 ERA. Everybody talks about trading valuable parts of the farm system away to get another starter at the deadline, but if the rotation comes back with full strength than I see no reason to trade away parts for a Jarrod Washburn when the pitchers the Brewers have at the moment are just as good as he would be. If there was a C.C. Sabathia type of pitcher available who wouldn’t cost everything but the kitchen sink to get (i.e. Roy Halladay), then I’d advocate getting someone, but until then, no dice. The pitching staff is just fine where they are; they’ll stop struggling sooner or later. Preferably sooner.

*** A could of weeks ago I wrote about management’s use of Casey McGehee over Mat Gamel in many key situations where it would have been better to put the lefty slugger in over the current hot bat. Well it appears McGehee’s finally cooled off: he’s 2 for his last 14 over this current homestand and has sat in favor of Gamel recently, probably because of the problems he has with his knee.

McGehee might be entering a prolonged slump here. I only say this because he’s a career .283/.340/.429 hitter in the minors and it’s really, really unlikely a 27-year-old would suddenly find his swing. If scouts for the Cubs would have seen this kind of power or discipline at the plate with any kind of consistency, they wouldn’t have placed him on waivers just a few months ago.

Since his knee is still struggling and it’s likely he’s starting to slump at the plate, now is the time to ride Gamel until Casey’s back to 100 percent.

*** The upcoming schedule for the Brewers is incredibly easy and the Cardinals lead just might evaporate pretty rapidly through August. After spending the last couple weeks before the All-Star break playing the toughest and best teams in the NL, they spend the next month and a half taking a break against them. Here’s a quick list of who they play until the end of August:

4 @ Cincinnati
3 @ Pittsburgh
3 vs. Atlanta
4 vs. Washington
3 @ San Diego
3 @ Los Angeles
3 @ Houston
3 vs. San Diego
3 vs. Houston
3 @ Pittsburgh
4 @ Washington
3 vs. Cincinatti
3 vs. Pittsburgh

The only good team the Brewers play until the end of August is LA, and every other series is absolutely winnable. That’s 12 of the next 13 series against .500 or lower teams. With the starting pitching coming back to full strength, I’m not so sure the Brewers need to trade for a pitcher, nevertheless anyone. I’m thinking 14 games against the Padres and Nationals coming up soon might solve some of the sicknesses that have been plaguing Milwaukee since the beginning of the year.

Another thing to consider is that the Brewers essentially started off the season with a 4-9 mark calling for the head of a couple of players. They were patient and waited it out — and were rewarded in May. Let’s wait a little while before panicking for Roy Halladay.

*** Prince Fielder owns.

A lot of people aren’t swooning over Prince as much as I thought they would after bumping up his OPS by over .200 points from last year. His on-base percentage is a whopping .423 — he’s learned to take walks. He’s on pace for about 40 homers. Pitchers are too afraid to throw him strikes now that he just takes the free pass to first — this Dale Sveum hitting philosophy is way better than Jim Skaalen’s.

One more thing I thought about Skaalen: Last year with the Brewers, virtually every single hitter put up mediocre numbers compared to their career norms. After he was subsequently fired, he’s now the coach of the Oakland Athletics. The A’s are currently awfully underachieving due to the offense putting up incredibly mediocre numbers. Is there a coincidence here?

*** Prince Fielder owns.

All of a sudden I’ve been brought back to the days of Ruben Quevedo and Jamey Wright tossing up a consistent array of doubles and gopher balls to the opposition when posting ERAs of 5.76 and 5.35 in 44 total starts and a combined 11-24 win-loss record. In 2002, the Brewers went 56-106.

Glendon Rusch — yeah, that Glendon Rusch — was one of Milwaukee’s most consistent pitchers with a 4.70 ERA and 210 innings pitched in 2002. Never mind that he’s an awful pitcher, and has always been an awful pitcher; he was the team’s #2 guy that year.

The parallels between Rusch and Jeff Suppan are alarmingly close — except Suppan doesn’t eat as many innings as Rusch. Suppan has also been our second-most consistent starter recently, as Manny Parra stunk down to AAA, Dave Bush has been terrible due to a microtear in his arm, and Braden Looper has just been awful lately. This is a far cry from early April when pretty much everybody wanted him off the roster. Now he’s a semi-valuable part of the rotation taking into account the shambles it’s in right now.

Another comparison to the lovable 2002 losers was the ace of the staff: they had Ben Sheets, we have Yovani Gallardo. I’m pretty sure 2002 was not the ideal setup for the Brewers. I’m pretty sure 2009 isn’t currently the ideal setup for the Brewers.

***

Manny Parra made his second start last night in Albequerque to face Manny Ramirez and the Isotopes. Parra took the loss, but his start looked encouraging on the surface as the reason for Nashville’s loss last night was due to the offense scoring 0 runs; Manny threw 7 innings of one-run ball and dropped to 0-1 so far in Nashville. Here’s what Right Field Bleachers had to say:

Like I said, a nice start. His walk total went down a little compared to his four in six innings last week. His strike to ball ratio remained solid. Basically…good to see. I don’t think one can read into the early performances too much, but I had my doubts he’d start solid in Nashville. I remain very interested to see if he can continue this for another four or five starts. If he does, especially with the entire starting rotation (minus Yo) struggling, you can bet Manny Parra will be back in Milwaukee.

So far he’s been encouraging more than anything considering his lack of confidence on the way down, but there’s no way he’s back to major-league ready yet. Out of his small sample size in AAA he’s owned only a nearly 1:1 K/BB ratio and has been the benefactor of a .200 BABIP.

It would be unreasonable to expect Parra to go down to AAA and simply dominate hitters right away since his confidence level has gone way down. However two starts down in AAA that look pretty good on the surface don’t exactly mean he’ll be starting this Saturday against San Fransisco again.

Even though his secondary stats imply he’s still the same Parra we saw earlier this season, these starts still are encouraging in the sense that having two good starts down in AAA could help him build his confidence and deflate those walk totals that suddenly jumped this year. A more confident Parra could mean hee’ll be ready to go in 3 or 4 more starts.

***

Coming out of AAA to pitch tomorrow’s series finale against the AL (thank god) is Mike Burns, a career minor leaguer who’s floated around with different teams before signing a minor-league contract with the Brewers at the beginning of this year.

The biggest names brought up at the beginning of the year to help provide pitching depth in case one of the starters went down with an injury (coughcoughBushcough) included guys like Seth McClung, Chase Wright, and Tim Dillard — not many of us expected a journeyman to post an ERA under 3 in Nashville.

Burns is definitely the best option to pitch right now to replace Bush’s spot. Burns keeps the ball in the ballpark (about 1 HR every 10 innings in AAA) adequately, doesn’t walk people (1.47 walks/9), but doesn’t srike anybody out and leaves the burden of his resonsibility on his defense.

Of course, the Brewers lead the league in defensive efficiency so far this season, so the defense shouldn’t have a big problem helping Burns out. His Major League Equivalent ERA using his AAA stats this year would be about 4.5; if his defense helps him out nicely he should become the new Glendon Rusch that lasts 4 or 5 starts.

Last year, the Milwaukee Brewers sent Dave Bush down to AAA after stinking up Milwaukee with terrible pitching performances through the first few months of the season. At this point last year, Bush was 2-5 with a 5.49 ERA and it got worse in his next start, hovering his ERA near 6 before catching fire over the last few months of the entire season and helped to propel the Brewers to their first playoff birth since 1982. Many people feel Manny Parra should follow that same route, taking a couple of weeks off of major league pitching to build his confidence back up against perennial minor leaguers. Tim Dillard or Seth Mcclung would be the likely candidates to take his spot while he uses a couple of starts to regroup.

When Doug Melvin was asked about repeating that course of action, he shrugged it off as if it wasn’t an option. “First of all, you have to have a better alternative,” said Melvin. “I’m not sure we did the right thing with Dave Bush last year.” Sounds like Parra’s going to continue to be able to pitch in the bigs.

Most people have attributed Parra’s inflated ERA to his lack of control. That’s mostly accurate, as his walk rates have skyrocketed so far this year, but I’m not sure he’s going to keep up his poor performance for the rest of the year. His walk totals have led to a much higher WHIP, but he’s gotten pretty unlucky so far with balls that are put in play and he’s giving up fly balls at a rate much higher than his career stats would imply. As the old addage goes: always trust the career stats over the cherry-picked ones from half a season.

His strikeouts have dipped a little bit as well but that’s nothing concerning as the dropoff is too insignificant at this point to be a cause for concern. His .359 BABIP should fall a little bit and his abnormally low left-on-base percentage has helped inflate his ERA. Even by the way he’s throwing strikeouts and walks up right now he should be a better pitcher than what he’s been, so there’s no way he keeps up his terrible pitching pace. My guess is that he’ll regress towards his career numbers, much like what Dave Bush did last year. This would be an argument to keep him in the rotation, then, as if he continually lowers his ERA then that means he’s going to be a much better pitcher than he has been.

After taking a quick look at his stats I’m not convinced he’s nearly as bad as his 6.75 ERA would imply and he’s due to regrress back towards the norm by the end of the year. All he needs to do is remember how to control his pitches a little better again and he’ll be back to normal. Give him some more time to prove himself. No need to send him down to AAA — give him a couple more starts to help him find himself.

From pools of xylophone clear
From caves of memory
I saw the children at heart
That we once used to be
Borne on foaming seahorse herd
Compose with trumpeting shell
- XTC – Mermaid Smiled

The Brewers have put together one of the more memorable starts in recent history, riding a current 21-5 monthly hot streak that has propelled them to a three-game lead in the NL Central and a busty 11 games over .500 less than two months into the season. They’ve done it with being awesome in general: the fourth-best OPS+ in the NL as well as the third best ERA+ so far — only the Mets and Dodgers can argue that their team stats trump Milwaukee’s and they just happen to be the other best teams in the NL.

Many of the stats this year compared to last year’s team are really inflated in a couple of key areas. OBP is the only stat that’s really jumped at me offensively, as a 27-point jump in OBP tells me that walking once in awhile has become a high priority and that leads to more baserunners and eventually runs. 5.11 runs/game is much better than 4.63. On the pitching side, the pitchers’ ERA has stayed virtually the same, however the team’s WHIP is much higher due to an increase in walks: Brewer pitchers this season have issued over 3% more walks per batter than they did in 2008. In other words, perhaps the pitching is due to regress a little bit. Perhaps we need to take this start with a grain of salt.

So without further adieu, let’s take a look a couple players who could see some regression over the next few months of play:

Dave Bush
Bushy this year has thrown 53 innings of excellent baseball, posting a 3.74 ERA and 1.08 WHIP and 38 strikeouts to only 11 walks. Before last night’s start, however, his deeper statistics seem to tell a different story: so far, he’s regressed in many of his main statistics last year and has only gotten lucky. His FB% has shot way up, GB% way down, and a not-insignificant increase in LD% means that his pitchers are more meaty than they should be. What’s mainly keeping him afloat is luck — a .243 BABIP and loomingly large 75% LOB rate mean that he’s benefited from timely outs and lucky baseball paths. This all has led to a 4.86 FIP, meaning that if he continues to pitch the way he is, 5 IP 6 ER and a big, fat L won’t be an uncommon occurrence.

Craig Counsell
It’s not a secret by now that Counsell has never been a beefy hitter, but he’s been pretty hot to start the year so far, batting way above his .256/.345/.346 career line, batting .324/.413/.456. His good hitting has been due to a hot streak and seeing the ball well — his general swing percentage is down significantly from his career, but all of his contact percentages are up. This means that Counsell is being much more selective at the pitches that he swings at, and when he does, he’s not swinging and missing. He’s also getting a little extra punch from a high .356 BABIP, which is getting him a little extra beef. Watch for him to regress back to career norms, but if his pitch selection stays the way it is, I’d be happy to see him stay at 2B for the rest of the year.

Ryan Braun
Even my favorite player is prone to benefiting from a little good luck every now and then. Braun has put up some crazy good statistics on the back. Brauny’s been ridiculous so far, putting up a .323/.451/.571/1.023 line with 8 dingers and a surprising 5:6 K/BB ratio. I really thought he’d strike out more. Braun also has an inflated BABIP (.368) and has a couple of other funky things that are odd with what you’d expect.

Braun’s line drive and fly ball percentages are way down from last year, which tells me that his stats should regress from last year, not go the other way around. What’s made him so effective however is that he has a wonderfully high HR/fly ball rate (25%), which definitely is not sustainable throughout the rest of the season. In other words, his ground balls are finding holes, as evidenced by his high BABIP, and his fly balls are finding the seats. Which is just fine with me. But expect him to come back down or go back into a slump for a little while.

Braden Looper
The biggest free agent signing the Brewers made last year has done a pretty good job so far for the Crew, going 4-2 with a 4.26 ERA — even when Blooper’s not on or doing too well, he’s kept the Brewers in games instead of totally imploding, and the Brewer offense has generally done a pretty good job of keeping him afloat recordwise. However, Blooper has benefited from a lower BABIP as well (.285) and his FIP (5.48) is the worst it’s been for him since his opening year in 1998 with the Cardinals. The reason his BABIP has been so bad is that he’s dramatically increased his walks and home runs so far this year, which has in turn increased his WHIP. I half-expect Looper to cut down on his walks and become better through the year, otherwise the Brewer offense may not be able to pick him up for the rest of the season.

RIP Nick Adenhart. You know something’s awful when Scott Boras is breaking down crying during an interview with the press. This is one of the few times where it’s appropriate that Boras beefs up a client. Drunk driving is the worst.

*****

Milwaukee went 1-2 on the first three games of the season on the road at the San Fransisco Giants, which isn’t too big of a deal considering it’s the first three games of the season and they had to go through San Fran’s meaty rotation, consisting of Tim Lincecum, Randy Johnson, and Matt Cain. Each pitcher is incredibly efficient, posting career FIPs of 3.02, 3.15, and 3.9, respectively. There’s nothing wrong with 1-2 on the road against two #1 starters and a solid #2/#3 guy when Jeff Suppan is the guy you tag for Opening Day. The only win came against the aptly-named Big Unit, whose Johnson was not so Randy when Yovani Gallardo blasted a three-run shot into the stands to give the Brewers all the runs they would need Wednesday night. (I apologize for that last sentence)

Cain pitched brilliantly the next day, mixing his pitches very well and locating everything perfectly on command. His FIP tends to be a bit high due to some higher walk totals over his career, however, it’s difficult to walk people when you’re (a) getting ahead 0-1, 0-2, and 1-2 in most of the hitters you face, and (b) facing the free-swinging Milwaukee Brewers. There were numerous instances where Cain’s 96-mph fastball painted the outside corner in a pitch that’s just plain impossible to hit.

The Brewers now head home, where the opposing pitching doesn’t get much easier. Perhaps the best pitcher in the majors when healthy, Rich Harden starts game 1 tomorrow night against the half-injured Braden Looper who hasn’t yet proven that he can throw at the velocity he did last year after suffering a couple minor injuries during spring training that held him only to two mediocre at best starts. Harden sports a career 3.23 ERA and Looper’s is on the wrong side of 4.5. Afterwards, it’s Carlos Zambrano’s second start against Dave Bush, which is another terrible mismatch, and Sunday’s finale pens Suppan as the starter, so it doesn’t even matter who the Cubs are trotting out (hint: he’s really good too). Could this perhaps be the toughest opposing pitching opening stretch? Lincecum-Johnson-Cain-Harden-Zambrano-Ryan Dempster. That’s an All-Star lineup right there. I’d be happy to be 2-4 once the Reds come to town.

Also note Edinson Volquez starts Game 1 in that Reds series. He struggled his last time out, but that doesn’t mean he’s not on fire when he’s on. If Milwaukee starts out slow this year, I won’t be too concerned.

Of course, they could just not start off slowly and exceed my expectations by taking 2 of 3 against the sCrUBS.

New manager Ken Macha didn’t make many baseball statheads too pleased when he decided to set the spring training rotation with Jeff Suppan to lead off the spring training schedule. Hopefully this is only a spring training move — Macha noted specifically that this is only the spring training schedule and not necessarily the one that will begin the season, but beat writer Tom Haudricourt thinks that this will be the rotation throughout the year.

Certainly pegging your worst pitcher as your #1 starter throughout the season seems totally counter-intuitive, but in all honesty, I don’t mind the move. Ultimately every starter will get the same amount of starts regardless of who is where in the order, and Macha (a known managerial stathead) is smart enough to realize this — this move is ultimately nothing more than an attempt to take some pressure off the younger guys who aren’t yet sure full-season studs yet; Yovani Gallardo was injured the majority of 2007 and is only projected for around 100 innings this year and Manny Parra flamed out at the end of last year after reaching (and surpassing) that phantom “innings increase limit” that is supposed to protect pitchers from having a higher injury risk. These guys are still a season or two away from the spotlight yet, and since they’re all going to get the same amount of starts anyways, taking some spotlight off of them can do nothing but benefit the young studs.

Right Field Bleachers wrote an incredibly interesting post about how the Brewers are making up for the void created by the departures of C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets by citing a much-improved bullpen and combining them with the projections of Yovani Gallardo and Braden Looper and coming up with the conclusion that the pitching staff is actually better off this year than it was last year with CC and Benny.

I like the logic train here, but I’m not yet sold. The post hasn’t taken into account the huge regression that Dave Bush is set to have — despite career-best statistics and clutch pitching down the stretch (and in the playoffs!) he still posted a 4.93 FIP and had a .245 BABIP (that was lowest in the majors among pitchers who have pitched a significant amount of innings), so it’s impossible to expect him to have another year as lucky as he had. He should regress a win — maybe two.

The link also counts on Gallardo to toss 180 innings next year, which is probably a little bit too much. Gallardo in 2007 threw nearly 200 innings, however, for the last few he was totally gassed and couldn’t pitch effectively. Compare that with him having to take 2008 off due to his injury, I don’t think he’ll have the endurance — nor will the Brewers want him to have the endurance — to pitch a huge amount of innings in 2009.

Projections outside of the ones that the Right Field Bleachers reference seem to be much more pessimistic, as CHONE and Marcel projections don’t have him topping 110 IP and seem to think he’ll reinjure himself. I’m not so sure he’ll go that low (barring an injury), but I think 180 innings might be a few too many to expect from a young stud coming off major knee surgery who the Brewers are — and should be — cautious with.

There is unrest in the forest.

The Brewers made the playoffs for the first time in 26 years mostly off of the pitching staff’s second-half excellency. It’s been well-documented how incredible CC Sabathia was, so we don’t hear that again. With the loss of Sabathia and (assumingly) Sheets to free agency, the rotation is going through a major change (and downgrade). Let’s take a look at the projected pitching staff and figure out just what we can expect from them in 2009.

Starting pitching

Last year’s starting pitching was obviously anchored by two of the best starters in the game. They are now gone. Doug Melvin has done nothing to try and replace those guys, but instead is relying on his young pitching staff to recreate their performance. Let’s break down the projected rotation starter by starter.

Yovani Gallardo
Gallardo was injured for most of the year, as everyone knows, so his contributions to the club were minimal in 2008. Luckily his problems were entirely related to a freak play where he hyperextended his ACL and not a continual arm problem due to poor mechanics or overuse. He threw only 24 innings the entire year, including a 4-inning stint to start off the 2008 postseason for Milwaukee.

He throws a low-90s fastball with an excrutiating curveball and good slider. A young, cost-controlled, three-plus-pitch pitcher with little to no injury history due to mechanical problems? Sign me up.

Projections for Gallardo vary wildly to the point where one could project any combination of innings pitched/ERA and it’d be a reasonable projection based on one of the three main ways numbers are determined (Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel projections). For example, Bill James expects Yo to throw nearly 200 innings of wonderful ball, with more Ks than innings pitched and a 3.15 FIP ERA. Marcel, on the other hand, doesn’t think he’ll appropriately rebound from his injury last year, and will throw 79 good innings with a 3.65 FIP ERA. 79 innings means he’s either injured, demoted, or both; judging by the numbers he’s going to put up, I don’t see him getting sent down to AAA for seasoning any more.

While most people think of “projections” as what experts and computers “think” a player is going to do, that’s not actually true. Projections are merely a mean of “what-if” seasons played. For example, if you imagine a million hypothetical Brewer seasons next year, it’s possible that Gallardo throws 220 innings with a 2.65 FIP ERA and 11 K/9. It’s also possible that Gallardo has continual arm problems through the year and struggles mightily with only 60 innings and a 5.5 ERA. It’s a projection based on average seasons, so these things are inaccurate. With that said, we can reasonably expect Yovani Gallardo to be Milwaukee’s #1 starter in 2009.

Manny Parra
Parra emerged last year as a legitimate #3 starter behind Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia, posting pretty good numbers, except for his high walk totals. Last year, Parra was doing pretty well until his final few appearances of the year, which may have been related to fatigue, as he had a substantial innings-pitched jump from 2007 to 2008. Usually anything over 25 additional innings pitched in a year is cause for concern, because not only is the pitcher deflated, it also leads to poor mechanics which makes for a high injury risk.

Last year, Parra threw 166 innings, which is far more than he has at any point in his career, which is a bit concerning to me because he came off rotator cuff surgery in 2005. What’s most concerning about Parra is that he’s had only one other season of 100+ IP since joining the minors, so his workload is a little concerning, especially since rotator cuffs have a tendency to reoccur. Projections for Parra don’t get any higher than 150 innings, so it’s imperative that Milwaukee has depth at starting pitching as it’s not unlikely that Parra will go down sometime throughout the year with a major injury or a reirritation of his rotator cuff.

I also don’t like the mechanics he displays in this picture don’t make me too happy, either. There’s too much stressed being placed on his shoulder when he whips it around. That tells me that I might see more headlines of “Shoulder soreness lands Parra on DL” than I’d like to see.

Jeff Suppan
Jeff Suppan is Milwaukee’s version of the overrated, overpaid pitcher who gained instant credibility due to a good run pitching in 2005′s playoffs for the St. Louis Cardinals. Hidden behind that small stretch of good pitching, however, is an “innings-eater,” which, in other words, means a below-average pitcher with a rubber arm who is only out there because he’s dependable. It’s kind of like sending Brett Favre out to play with the Jets — he might be good, he will probably be bad, but you know he’s going to go out there and play. Whether or not you’re satisfied with 22TD and 22INT in a season is up to you to decide.

Considering the state of 2009′s rotation, I don’t mind seeing Suppan in there at all. Losing CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets and keeping Suppan in the rotation is obviously a blow, but it’s not as if the Brewers have the immediate resources to compete in 2009 anyway, so having a below average starter who will post around a 4.7 ERA while tossing 200 innings in a transitional period isn’t the biggest cause for my concern. Unless, of course, we can pawn him and his contract off to a sucker team who thinks that he’s above average. But I don’t think that’s likely, because everyone who’s well as anyone knows that Suppan is what he is– a rubber arm who can give you 175-200 innings a year, which is still a valuable commodity to have.

Dave Bush
Comparing 2008 with his other major league years, Dave Bush had a career year in 2008. He posted a 4.18 ERA in 185 innings last year, including a great stretch run that helped propel Milwaukee to the postseason. Dig a little bit deeper, though, and it’s clear that his season was very lucky and fluky.

Despite Bush’s lowest ERA of his career since his short stint coming up from AAA with Toronto in 2004, his FIP was the highest it’s ever been. His low ERA was largely driven by an incredibly low .245 BABIP last year, which over the course of two seasons should be impossible since his LD% has been fairly consistent at just below 20%. His BABIP should be on the other side of .300, and an extra 70 points (or more, if he’s unlucky) on opposing batters would make an incredible adjustment to Bush’s actual pitching performances.

Even more, Bush’s ground balls were down and fly balls were up in ’08. More fly balls will generally mean more home runs, and since Bush pitches to contact and doesn’t strike many out, he will need to rely on the ball staying in the park more often, so the more ground balls, the merrier.

Hopefully Bush will continue on his hot stroke of luck, but I doubt it. Instead, he should work on either striking out more batters or working on his home run ratios. Having Mike Cameron in the outfield will unquestionably help him with his BABIP, thank goodness. His lucky year last year is netting him a nice payday.

Seth McClung/5th starter

Milwaukee hasn’t officially designated a 2009 rotation yet, and the 5th spot has been mysteriously vacant so far all year. Nobody in the minors is ready to make an appearance in the big leagues, but Tom Hardicout made a subtle hint that Seth McClung might be next year’s 5th starter simply because he left McClung out of his bullpen preview.

McClung would probably make the most sense to fill the vacant 5th starter spot out of everyone remaining, as he was a starter with the Devil Rays before coming to Milwaukee and has experience starting baseball games. Carlos Villanueva also has experience starting, but by now Milwaukee has found a place for him in the bullpen simply based on his small sample size of doing well in the 7th inning.

McClung was given a chance when he was incredibly young with the Devil Rays and posted abysmal results. Hitters were able to tee off on him when they were able to tell differences in his mechanics while pitching. An excellent analysis of McClung was already posted on Brew Crew Ball analyzing his performance and why it changed from the 6.00 ERA guy originally found on the old teams of Tampa Bay.

Since coming to Milwaukee and he’s shored up his delivery, he’s turned into quite the acceptable pitcher. His FIP ERA was at about 4.5 over a not-insignificant 105 innings, which is pretty good. He strikes out his fair share of batters, but walks far too many to be a truly legitimate #3 starter. One of the problems that will plague Chucky throughout the rest of his career as a starter will be his tendency to walk and strike out many a batter, thus making his pitch count not efficient enough to throw more than 6 or 7 innings. If you don’t mind pretty consistent 5IP games, McClung is your guy to fill the back end of that rotation.

Overall, the starting rotation is going to enter 2009 with a lot of question marks and not a lot of depth. Yovani Gallardo is coming off a major injury after logging a very few amount of innings last year– remember, in 2007, Gallardo had to be shut down near the end of the year because he had eclipsed the proverbial innings limit for a young pitcher. Milwaukee still has to worry about the strength of their young stud after posting only 24 innings the year before. He isn’t quite ready to become the team’s ace yet.

Also, McClung isn’t going to be able to log very many innings due to his high pitch counts, and Suppan/Bush just aren’t very good. With no depth in the organization outside of bullpen necessity Carlos Villanueva or Tommy John Surgery rehab guy Chris Capuano, Milwaukee will be searching for some depth in case of injury or poor performance from the scrap heaps of Triple A or the literal scrap heaps of pitchers who didn’t get signed.

One more thing to worry about for the season: with all of the high pitch counts (McClung, Parra) and poor, wild card pitchers (Bush, Suppan), tat most likely means that the bullpen will be overtaxed at different periods of time as the pitching staff hits a rough spot during the season– if normal 5-6IP starters have a bad outing, that means they’ll be limited to 4-5 innings through rough stretches, and it’s not going to be nice if a bullpen like the Brewers has to throw 4-5 innings by themselves over a period of a couple of weeks. Poor starting pitching ultimately harms the bullpen just as much as the team.

The bullpen
2009′s bullpen is going to be very similar to last year’s as both are a consortium of spare parts and dejected major leaguers looking for a new home. Take a look at the comparisons: each bullpen has a large free agent signing with the intention of taking over the closer’s role (08: Eric Gagne 09: Trevor Hoffman), each has former pitchers ridiculed for their performances even though it was probably their manager’s fault for placing those pitchers into high-leverage situations in the first place as they don’t have the talent to be a big guy in the bullpen (08: Gulliermo Mota 09: Jorge Julio), and a general consortium of average to below-average pitchers thrown together from scrap heaps in hope that they will perform acceptably.

Thus, there are not many returning bullpen members, with the losses of Eric Gagne, Brian Shouse, Gulliermo Mota, and Salomon Torres. To replace those guys, we’ve gotten Trevor Hoffman, R.J. Swindle, and Jorge Julio to shore up the bullpen along with Todd Coffey as an addition from the end of last year.

Hoffman is Hoffman (and MUCH better than Gagne, thank God), and R.J. Swindle is more than enough of a replacement for aging, expensive Brian Shouse; seriously, when Ryan Howard is up with the bases loaded and 2 out in a one-run ballgame in the 7th, you’re going to be glad Ken Macha went with Swindle instead of Carlos Villanueva. He murders lefties. Jorge Julio is an average pitcher who has succumbed to teams thinking he has more talent than he actually has and therefore will be a serviceable reliever as long as he’s relagated to low-leverage situations or games where it’s not all that close. David Riske is coming back from an injury-plagued year last year where he just couldn’t quite get to full form seemingly all year, but early on in the season performed acceptably as a reliever.

Riske is definitely overpaid for a middle relief guy (3 years, $13m plus a 2011 option and incentives) who you can develop through the minors or pick up for cheaper on a free agent market, but he’s still good to have on the team. I could easily see Riske becoming the 8th inning guy for Ken Macha, keeping Hoffman in the closer’s role and Villanueva in the 7th inning spot. That bullpen isn’t half bad, and when your better relievers are set for the high leverage situations while guys like Julio or Coffey aren’t, the bullpen should be slightly improved in 2009. Whether or not they crumble from overuse due to short starting pitching stints remains to be seen. I don’t want to see Riske getting injured in 2009– I’d want to run him out of town then.

The overall pitching line of Milwaukee doesn’t sound too bad, however, the depth and reliability of the rotation leaves quite a bit to be desired. The difference between the rotation when it’s healthy and when it’s not is contention for a playoff berth, so the health of the rotation is crucial in determining the result of the 2009 Brewers. It’s not going to be surprising, though, if someone gets injured and Milwaukee starts giving up 10+ runs more than it should.

It’s about time Suppan earned his huge contract as well. It’s time to earn their paychecks one more year.