So, Kameron Loe and Chris Capuano have out clauses in their contracts coming up. Here’s how I’m thinking the Brewers should deal with the situation:

– Bring up both Loe and Capuano, and insert one (or both!) into the starting rotation (Cappy gets first dibs because he’s a better story for the press). Remove Parra/Estrada and replace him with Capuano, remove Narveson and replace him with Loe.

When Capuano and Loe come up to the bigs, bring down Braddock and Estrada (both have options).

Rotation becomes Gallardo-Wolf-Loe-Capuano-Bush. R-L-R-L-R.

Hoffman’s gonna take a few days to work out kinks.

I’m glad I didn’t watch the game yesterday, as I’m sure I would’ve been as frustrated as anyone watching Hoffman blow it again. He’s been missing his spots by a ton, now that I look at the replay.

However, I don’t know if

All Macha would say is Hoffman is done for now because he’s going in the repair shop. Macha said pitching coach Rick Peterson has some new scouting data and info that shows Hoffman is in need of a mechanical adjustment in his delivery. Macha said Hoffman has lost his arm slot and is coming too much over the top, stopping his pitches from moving as he wants and affecting his location.

Macha said Peterson talked with Hoffman about that very problem a few weeks ago but didn’t say why it was not resolved. Macha also admitted that at age 42, Hoffman might have to make adjustments.

is anything more than management excuse for his terrible pitching. He’s either going to get better in these next couple days, or he’s completely cooked and can’t locate his pitches anymore.

Not that I won’t give him another chance.

Numerous times I’ve pointed out on BPL that the Brewers made the right move by not making any major trades for a Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay since the Brewers were blowing smoke and mirrors during their hot stretch at the beginning of the year and they’re too flawed to justify overspending for a band-aid to heal a broken arm.

They haven’t overpaid for any starting pitching yet which tells me they realize they’re more than one egg short of a carton and instead have dealt for two relievers, Claudio Vargas and now David Weathers, in addition to buying Jesus Colome. Brewers relief pitching isn’t that great but is hardly a cause for concern. Not only are the starters much worse and pitch many more innings, but the difference between Trevor Hoffman and Todd Coffey and Chris Smith and Seth McClung is pretty significant. A large difference in quality between your high-leverage relievers and your low-leverage ones might put a dent in your bullpen’s ERA, but it doesn’t actually take much away from their overall quality, since I tend to measure bullpen performance in terms of what guys are performing in high-leverage situations.

So then why did the Brewers go out of their way to get three relievers instead of address the starting pitching they so desperately need?

David Weathers is an old veteran who’s now with his second stint in Milwaukee. He tosses an 88-mph fastball, slider, and changeup, which is pretty typical, and his career 4.24 ERA looks like an average pitcher to bolster the bullpen. This year he actually has a 3.32 ERA, which means he’s doing pretty well for himself in a homer-happy park in Cincinatti.

His peripheral stats are a different story, though. This year’s been a bit different than his normal. His strikeouts and walks have stayed the same, but he’s suddenly developed a home run problem that makes his low 3.32 ERA pretty misleading and his peripheral stats actually worse than past years, so he actually should be getting worse, not any better. He’s sporting an ugly FIP over 5, so we shouldn’t be surprised if he gets much worse as the season progresses and his stats regress to his career numbers. He’s not really an upgrade over what they have right now, and he’s a little pricey for a reliever anyways, so the move definitely doesn’t make much sense if the Brewers are planning on contending this year.

Read what Weathers had to say about it:

“I had no idea; it was a total shock,” said Weathers when reached by telephone. “I’m excited. I loved it when I was in Milwaukee and I’m excited to be coming back.

“I know the Brewers are still in the race and that’ll be fun. I haven’t pitched as much as usual this year so I feel really fresh. I feel like I can finish the season strong.

“I know a lot of the guys there and I’m ready to get out there with them.”

See why the Brewers got him? The pen has been overworked by anyone’s standards and a fresh arm is just what they need so they can get some R&R the rest of this season.

Jesus Colome was a DFA pickup after getting released by the Nationals after sporting an ugly 7.88 ERA and a WHIP of nearly 2 in 16 innings for the Nationals. 16 innings really isn’t really a big enough sample size to judge one pitcher, but he’s been a career 4.62 ERA pitcher with a poor strikeout to walk ratio and a seemingly average-to-poor reliever that Doug Melvin just loves to grab from the scrapheap. He can be counted on to eat some innings since he’s had a nice extended break this season and has only pitched a few innings.

Claudio Vargas is another ex-Brewer coming back for his second stint with the club. Considering he wasn’t doing much with the Dodgers and it only took a backup career catcher at best to get another fresh reliever on the club, it wasn’t a bad move to try and keep the rest of the bullpen rested for the stretch. Claudio used to start for the Brewers and would always frustratingly nibble on the outside corner, and lots of walks and poor pitching in general is what makes up Milwaukee’s starting rotation is something the Brewers tend to gravitate towards so he’ll be able to spot start whenever necessary.

Milwaukee hasn’t really upgraded their pen any by gathering a few middle relievers who sport frustrating ERAs, and the Crew have only fallen out of the race further, being 6 games back with 51 to play, their furthest back in quite some time. I suspect all three of these moves are related just to give the bullpen a break and provide Ken Macha with some more flexibility in the 6th and 7th innings. I don’t think it’s an attempt to bolster the bullpen for a playoff run.

Some of this will be quite obvious to most serious Brewers observers, but I thought I’d jump in with both feet and take a peek at who the Brewers have under contract now, and who they’ll have in two years. The Halladay rumors have me interested to know whether it’s time to make a big move now, and sacrifice the future, or if the team’s secure for quite a while.

Catcher:
Angel Salome is slotted to be catching in a few years, and maybe even next year, if Kendall doesn’t re-sign. I see no reason why that won’t be the case. Any prospect is a question mark, but it doesn’t appear to me that there’s much to worry about regarding Salome. That, and having Jonathan Lucroy available if Salome doesn’t make it is also heartening.

First Base:
Prince Fielder will not be a Brewer in 2012. I’d put money on it. The reason: Scott Boras. There will be no hometown discount, and there will be a lot of money in Prince Fielder’s pockets. This is where I have Gamel slotted in past 2011 if his defense isn’t up to par. Otherwise, I’m sure there will be a veteran fill-in available for a decent price if there isn’t a prospect that is ready by that point.

Second Base:
We can hope that Rickie Weeks recovers well from a second major wrist injury, but I’ll admit I have my doubts. I’m a big Weeks backer, but I find it hard to bank on him coming back strong, especially since he took a lot of time to recover from his first one. Brett Lawrie’s slotted to show up sometime around here for his first real taste of the bigs, which makes me feel much more confident about the position going forward, as I think one of the two will be able to contribute consistently. I highly doubt Felipe Lopez is more than a rental.

Shortstop:
I feel much better about this than I did earlier in the year, when I had doubts about Escobar’s hitting ability. He won’t be a star with the stick in the bigs, but I think he can hold his own soon enough. That makes what happens to JJ Hardy a bit less important. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, he’s eligible for free agency at the end of 2010. One wonders if he has a lot of value if he struggles the rest of this year and next. On the other hand, if he plays well, he’s due a big payday that the Brewers may be unable to afford. If the team doesn’t do so well next year, expect to hear a lot of Hardy to (insert AL East and/or high payroll team here) rumors.

Third Base:
Who’d have thought Casey McGehee would make such a claim to third base? Maybe it’s a mirage, but this gives Gamel a touch more time to get ready, at the very least. I can’t say for sure if he’s sticking around third for long, especially with Gamel nipping at his heels, but even so, McGehee may have to be the torchbearer at second in 2010, if Weeks doesn’t come back quickly. He’s also an option to come back to third should Gamel struggle with his glove. All in all, a very nice problem to have. Taylor Green is also a potential option in the future.

Outfield:
Ryan Braun is locked up for the next six years, which will hopefully be good ones for him. Even if, somehow, that doesn’t work out, Melvin made a great move getting him locked down to under-market prices for three of his free-agent years. Cameron will be long gone by then, sadly, and Corey Hart will be in his last year of arbitration in 2011. I think Hart’s leveled off a bit, but he’s still a major league caliber player. I’ll admit to being worried about center, it’s something Melvin’s going to have to find a solution for, even if it means moving Hart over and finding a fill in right fielder. Lorenzo Cain sticks out to me as the only possible prospect option there that I know of to this point.

Starting Pitching:
Even if somehow the Brewers swing something for Halladay, they’ll lose him after 2010, most likely. Suppan will also likely be gone at that point, and I wouldn’t count on Braden Looper either. Dave Bush is also a free agent after 2010. Gallardo and Parra may well still be up and running, but I’m not even going to try to project a 2012 starting rotation.

Relief Pitching:
Ditto here, but I’ll just mention who’s tied up through 2011. Carlos Villanueva will have his final arbitration year then, and Todd Coffey will just become a free agent for the first time. Mark DiFelice will still be under team control if he’s not moved, but he’ll also be of an age where not much can be rightfully expected of him. Tim Dillard will be a bit younger, and also under team control, although I do wonder what the team has planned for him.

What’s the point of all this? This is the kind of thing that Doug Melvin already has in mind as he’s negotiating with Toronto. Most likely he has different views on some of the players than I do, especially the prospects, but the point is, its decision time. How much of this future does he give up? Does he trust his young pitchers to keep developing to replace the old arms? Does he trust the young prospects in the field to become what we think they can become? How much more money can he expect from Mark Attanasio for payroll in the future? If the answers to those questions are no, no, and not much, don’t be surprised if Melvin sells the farm for this chance. If the answers are yes, yes, and quite a bit, there’s no way he’s risking the future. I’ll bet that the answer is somewhere in the middle. This makes the next 10 days very interesting indeed, as we know Melvin at least believes enough in the team to sacrifice some minor prospects for a shot at the playoffs, due to the Lopez trade. Your guess is as good as mine as to what will actually happen.

Using the Baseball Musings Lineup Simulation tool, here’s a quick look at what the offense will do in 2009.

Note that these numbers are all CHONE projections, with one objection: I’m predicting Bill Hall will do much better than his projections, considering he’s due for a BABIP correction year and I have a good feeling his LASIK surgery will be able to make him see the ball better, and post a Denard Span-like transformation. I’ve shown why Hall’s problems are inherently linked with his ability to see the ball already right here. I’ve beefed up his numbers a little bit to adjust for what I think will happen…

5.2 runs per game is obviously unrealistic considering how odd the top lineups are. So, let’s adjust for the reduced performance that lineup will have. 5.05 runs per game sounds like an appropriate approximation.

Of course, there’s more. This isn’t the lineup that’s going to be playing every single day. Whenever J.J. Hardy needs a day off, he’ll be replaced by the soft-hitting Craig Counsell. Sometimes, Chris Duffy or Tony Gwynn Jr. (whichever one) is going to start in center. Brad Nelson might take some at-bats away from Ryan Braun. So, if we adjust playing time further, we amount to about 5 total runs per game with our lineup.

5 runs per game is nothing to scoff at. That’s 810 runs throughout the duration of the entire season. For reference, they scored 750 runs all of last season. Depending on how well the patchwork starting rotation holds up, we may very well have an underrated team here. 800 runs isn’t a small cup of coffee, and that could easily carry a team to a .500 record. If Braden Looper and