Monday, Jan. 12

Cody — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 04:55:09 +0000

With the Brewers not in the running to make any additional moves on the pitching side of the ball, it’s safe to say that I can continue working on my Brewers 2009 pitching preview. With an anticipated ample amount of time at my job, I should be able to work on it in my free time, so expect it to come out in a week or so. That’s also when school starts up again, so hopefully I can pull an Aaron Gleeman and continue this blog while studying and paying for my tuition.

Since the pitching preview will take up quite a bit of my time, and there still is no news coming out of Brewerland, I’ll keep this post short.

1) I feel like Doug Melvin is getting to the point where he’s beginning to re-evaluate his talent based on major league production and wants to edit his roster elsewhere. With prospects, it’s unsure what kind of production they’re going to have in the major leagues– Denard Span, for example, OPSed only .719 throughout the 5 or so years he played in the minor leagues. The first significant batting sample he gets in the majors, his OPS jumps up by 100 points while having incredible pitch selection. On the other spectrum, you see guys who are big in the minors, but falter in the majors. A non-extreme example, but close to home, Rickie Weeks has underperformed offensively in his time in Milwaukee, but OPSed nearly .900 over his minor league career. Now, with significant at-bat sizes of the young core, Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Corey Hart, Ryan Braun, and Rickie Weeks all can be evaluated primarily by their major league performances. Meanwhile, in the minors, we don’t even know what position Mat Gamel is going to play yet.

Braun and Hardy are obviously incredibly gifted players with bright futures in the Brewers’ organizations, but perhaps Melvin is considering trading overrated and overvalued players such as Hart or Fielder in order to upgrade their starting pitching. Or find a long-term third baseman. Considering arbitration is coming up, now would be an appropriate time to shop players who are getting big raises, because the organization may be able to find an alternative option for cheaper that will produce similarly. Other teams will also consider players like Fielder or Hart cheap enough to be on the roster, as free agency has not set in on these guys and they’re still under control for awhile. I’m thinking of a certain Prince Fielder to San Fransisco rumor that keeps popping up, but just because I’m spying Jonathan Sanchez’s way doesn’t mean that Brian Sabean will take on someone Prince’s size for a young stud like Sanchez.

But we can hope. I heard Twins fans are hoping for a Boof Bonser for J.J. Hardy trade too.

2) So far, these playoffs have been incredible. Everything I thought I knew about these football teams has turned out to be a farce; for example, Arizona can’t play on the east coast, Philadelphia didn’t have the ability to put together four good quarters (so far they’ve had 8), and San Diego can play well under Norv Turner*.

* (Sorry for stealing Joe Posnanski’s style) San Diego’s management finally needs to realize they made the wrong decision when they hired Mr. Turner. After running all over 2006 and choking in the playoffs, Norv Turner “led” the Chargers to a disappointing, but acceptable, 11-5 season where they made it to the championship game. This year, they went 8-8 and only made the playoffs because Denver decided to choke away the final three games of the season.

I was never ever sold on the Colts this season. Peyton Manning has not been 100% this year. His only legitimate deep threat is Reggie Wayne. They can’t run the ball. The defense is prone to choking in big moments. Excluding a game where Baltimore played terribly, Week 17 when the Titans didn’t care, and one against the Bengals, the other Indianapolis wins have been by 3, 4, 3, 4, 6, 3, 4, 10 (at home against the Lions), and 7. They’re seemingly the opposite of the Green Bay Packers — while the Pack went 0-8 in games decided by 4 points are less, the Colts are 6-1. And most of those were against opponents like Houston, Detroit, Cleveland, and San Diego, too. If they had played anyone else other than San Diego or Arizona, I would have picked against them, whether home or away, and feel good about it.

However, this was Norv Turner’s active destruction of what could have been a great team. He mad bad decisions, didn’t mesh with the players, and has those wonderful Norv aloof, yet yearning, faces whenever something goes wrong. LT has turned into nothing under Norv; the defense is bland and can be picked apart by anyone. The team wasn’t in sync, the players weren’t playing hard. They went 8-8 in the AFC west. That is unacceptable. That is why I picked Indianapolis over San Diego. Norv Turner.

Congrats for the Chargers on winning, but it’s unfortunate that management still can’t fire him since he’s been to the Championship Game and Divisional Round the last two years. Next year, they just might fall even further.

Sometimes I feel as if the parity in the NFL is making the NFL playoffs quite a bit like MLB’s. One game is simply not enough to gauge a team’s ability, and considering the flipping of conventional wisdom, even the Arizona Cardinals can put together a run of beating two high-quality NFC south teams. Making picks on point spreads is almost becoming irrelevant. Bill Simmons is always spot-on with his analysis, but errs in his predictions. Flacco won on the road against a tough D. Arizona won a game. Philly is a complete, legit team. It’s turning the NFL into more of a crapshoot, and I don’t know if I like it or not. It’s kind of weird to not have a Yankees or Lakers in a sport to hate for the sake of being really, really good.

So, prepare for the upcoming pitching preview– part 2 of my look at 2009′s Brewers.

Brewer Paradise Lost » nfl

Monday, Jan. 12