On Monday I took a quick glance at four similar baseball players just by looking at their statistics and nothing else. Each player played the same position and therefore had the same normalized stats:

Chicks obviously dig the long ball, but let’s run a few comparisons, “mystery game” style. Check it out, using 2008 statistics:

Player A: .270/.341/.500, 25 HR in 492 AB, 123 OPS+, UZR/150 -7.1
Player B: .251/.339/.543, 48 HR in 610 AB, 124 OPS+, UZR/150 2.6
Player C: .276/.372/.507, 34 HR in 588 AB, 128 OPS+, UZR/150 -8.7
Player D: .247/.377/.494, 31 HR in 590 AB, 127 OPS+, UZR/150 3.8

Check out how similar these players are — you can’t guess who’s who without specifically looking up the statistics first. Without doing that, rank these players from who you’d most want and why, and I’ll lay out the same (putting contracts in mind) on my next post and explain why the three players who aren’t Ryan Howard are more desirable to have on your team than the big slugger himself.

Just for the record, if I were looking at these statistics by themselves, I’d rank the players, from best to worst, 4-2-3-1. Let me know what you think.

Those players, in order, were Adam Laroche, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and Carlos Pena. I was a little bit surprised to see that Laroche was almost as good as the other “big three” first basemen in this category in terms of pure statistics, even though he lost quite a bit of value defensively for not being that good at first base.

These four players are very similar statistically, with about one total win being the difference between them (assuming they all had the same amount of PAs). However, their contracts appear to be wildly different. Check out what each of these players are getting paid:

Adam Laroche: 1 yr/ $7.05 million plus $10,000 in incentives for reaching PA plateaus
Prince Fielder: 2 yrs/ $18 million plus $500k for reaching 500 PA
Ryan Howard: 3 yrs/ $54 million with incentives for various accomplishments that could reach an additional $2.5 million
Carlos Pena: 3 yrs/$24.125 million plus $25,000 for each Gold Glove

It’s incredible to me how much the media can change the face of a player simply by means of how much hype they give him. Howard is considered a first-class slugger in the majors because he can hit home runs and plays for a major market team. Alternatively, Carlos Pena had a higher OPS+ than Howard, was better defensively, and gets paid less than half of what Howard makes. The only real “knock” against Pena is that in 2008 he only hit 31 HR while Howard blasted nearly 48 hitting in an extreme hitters park in Philadelphia.

Let it be known too that Pena went nuts in 2007, putting up an incredible line of .282/.411/.627 with 46 HR and 172 OPS+ with some plus defense in first base as well. Since he plays in Tampa, though, he doesn’t get near the amount of media attention that he deserves.

The discrepancy in salary between these two players is an obvious choice when deciding who I’d rather want as a player. Considering Howard’s massive $18 million salary next year, I’d just as soon take the services of Adam Laroche because he costs $11 million cheaper, and I can make up for Laroche’s dropoff in production by signing someone else to fill in the gap somewhere else — an extra $11 million will be able to buy me some more wins somewhere else where there’s a market to upgrade. Or that $11 million can be put back into the system for next year in order to afford a cool free agent coming out. Or, I can try and lock up a pre-arbitration player. The possibilities with extra money are endless; $11 million to lose out on one extra win is a gamble I’d be quite willing to take.

I decided to take a look at some of the best values of some of the best players in the majors. I used Beyond the Box Score’s Top 50 Players in 2008 list and compared the salaries of players with how much they’re worth on the field. Just a few notes before I publish the spreadsheet:

– I sorted players by those in their arbitration years and those who have signed longer-term contracts. I did this because players in their arbitration years get smaller contracts than those who have proven themselves and are ready to become free agents. This is so that we’re comparing apples and apples; not apples and oranges.

– Players who are in pre-arb years were omitted; the salaries are too similar. Of the top 50 players on Beyond the Box Score’s list, that means I’m skipping out on Josh Hamilton, Geovany Soto, Joey Votto, Carlos Quentin, BJ Upton, and Mike Aviles.

– Because some players’ contracts are backloaded, I decided to normalize cost/win values by averaging the entire contract of the player in terms of price/year and finding out the cost/win that way in addition to the player’s contract in 2009.

– Manny Ramirez hasn’t signed anything yet and I just estimated his salary at $20 million, since that’s the base number that gets thrown around a lot.

– Chipper Jones’ salary isn’t disclosed, so I just estimated it based on what MLB Contracts said. Nothing scientific there.

So, here’s what I found.

One of the things that jumped out at me was the incredible value ballclubs are getting by signing pre-arbitration players to long-term contracts that translates to guaranteed money for the players when they are just one injury away from losing millions of dollars (see: Ben Sheets). Evan Longoria is the best deal among the top 50 players, and likely the world — at $120,000/win, he’s an incredible bargain, no matter what team you are. And he’s only 23. Considering his contract is a little backloaded, he still only costs $630,000 per win, and when you consider he didn’t play the entire season last year (which means his WAR over a full season would be higher) and you expect a 23-year-old to improve as he continues to make progress in the big leagues, he’s probably going to come cheaper than that. The Rays paid their superstar virtually no money to go out and add 5 wins above replacement.

With that said, it’s widely known at this point that the Angels are not the most efficient of spenders. They considered Gary Matthews Jr. enough of a talent to pay $10 million/year to OPS .675 and play terrible defense. Torii Hunter is the lone Angelic who appears on this list, proving to be an inefficient purchase, even though he adds 3-4 wins to their win total.

Of course these numbers aren’t perfect. I personally don’t expect Ryan Ludwick to repeat his 2008 performance since it seemed like a flukish year and I don’t trust an oft-injured player like him to repeat an entire season’s worth of good hitting. However, if it’s a good quick cost-benefit analysis for players where you’ve already evaluated talent levels on.

For my part 3 preview (which I’ve started by the way!), I’m going to do a spreadsheet on all current Brewers and how they can project to do for the 2009 season using this analysis. Using Beyond the Box Score’s cost-per-win analysis to use Milwaukee’s current payroll to determine who’s worth it and who’s not.

Anyone want to undertake the task of doing this for the entirety of MLB?

Yovani Gallardo wants to pitch in the World Baseball Classic next month but is waiting to hear back from the Brewers to determine how comfortable they are with the idea before Gallardo makes his final decision. He would pitch for Mexico, naturally, and final rosters have to be sent in by the 24th, so final decisions have to be made by then.

Gallardo should be back to near 100% from his torn ACL which he suffered in a game last year and has only pitched four innings ever since. He says the knee is back to 100%, and by now he should be ready to start pitching with a moderate to full workload, as a knee problem for a pitcher isn’t nearly as concerning as an elbow or shoulder problem.

I’ve always been a proponent of the WBC, even though it doesn’t get nearly the amount of media attention that it should. Huge stars like Albert Pujols tend to exaggerate injuries and treat the WBC as if it’s a second priority with the WBC, and with the exact science of workloads that pitchers are bound under, most pitchers are discouraged from pitching in order to ensure that during MLB’s season, that player can be healthy and productive for the maximum amount of time. The only risky pitcher I can think of off the top of my head who is going to risk his overall health is perennially-gassed pitcher Justin Verlander. Gallardo doesn’t seem to be the type of pitcher who’s often injured or fatigued, so I’d encourage him to play in the WBC.

With that said, it’s still going to be fun to watch. Even if it interferes with spring training.

Hey, check this out. Here’s Jayson Stark:

Before the Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a three-year, $54 million extension, the two sides talked seriously about a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $110 million.

I don’t think I could name one other player in the majors today who’s so grossly salivated over in the media than Ryan Howard. Chicks obviously dig the long ball, but let’s run a few comparisons, “mystery game” style. Check it out, using 2008 statistics:

Player A: .270/.341/.500, 25 HR in 492 AB, 123 OPS+, UZR/150 -7.1
Player B: .251/.339/.543, 48 HR in 610 AB, 124 OPS+, UZR/150 2.6
Player C: .276/.372/.507, 34 HR in 288 AB, 128 OPS+, UZR/150 -8.7
Player D: .247/.377/.494, 31 HR in 290 AB, 127 OPS+, UZR/150 3.8

Check out how similar these players are — you can’t guess who’s who without specifically looking up the statistics first. Without doing that, rank these players from who you’d most want and why, and I’ll lay out the same (putting contracts in mind) on my next post and explain why the three players who aren’t Ryan Howard are more desirable to have on your team than the big slugger himself.

Just for the record, if I were looking at these statistics by themselves, I’d rank the players, from best to worst, 4-2-3-1. Let me know what you think.

Tomorrow, I’ll be making a post about music. I’ll give you mix upon mix to download (legally!) and share with yourself or your friends. Sorted by genre. Hours and hours of sweet nectar.

Lastly, this is the funniest thing you’ll ever see:

The Brewers are finally starting to do something!

The biggest news of the day comes from Tom Hardicourt. The Brewers have inked a 2-year, $18 million deal with Prince Fielder in order to buy out two years of his arbitration and keep him on the team.

The deal in itself doesn’t sound too bad, as it’s kind of a wash — Prince Fielder rated as about a 2.2 adjusted VORP for 2008. The average win in 2008 was valued at $4.5m. That cost in 2009 might go down due to the struggling economy — unless you’re the Yankees — so Prince’s value can be placed around $9m or so per year. That’s about what he’s worth. Not bad.

However, instead think about this in terms of what these players tend to be worth in the real world. Fielder compared himself to Ryan Howard when originally coming up with an arbitration figure. Last year, an arbitration hearing thought Howard was worth $10 million, and this year, he’s submitting a figure of $18 million. This bloated figure is largely a product of unjustified media hype on a high-strikeout, high-HR lefty with poor defense. They don’t think Prince is quite as good as Howard, however, the comparisons are close enough where during next year’s arbitration, Prince’s salary would climb so high that he would be paid far more than he’s worth. The deal makes sense for Prince, too, because he’s getting this as guaranteed money just in case he unexpectedly loses time due to poor play or injury. It’s insurance for Prince, and good economics for upper management. Other teams might also be more inclined to aggressively try and trade for Prince since his salary is set for the next two years and is less of a wild card because he utilizes Scott Boras as his agent.

As was noted in my pitching preview, Milwaukee’s probably not going to spend any more money. This may be a bit of a rebuilding year/let overpaid contracts die year, but the team’s still not competitive enough to be a playoff contender or threat. Hopefully we can soon rid ourselves of the Suppans and Halls and not get burned a third time. For a mid-market team, to waste that much of your payroll on subpar players won’t get the job done. One of the things I like to see is that owner Mark Attanasio has increased payroll every year since he’s been here, giving a team like Milwaukee a better chance and more leeway to give out bad contract. Florida or Tampa Bay couldn’t give a career 4.7 ERA pitcher like Suppan $44 million over 4 years.

On a different note, over the past year or two, I’ve become obsessed with The Orb. For those unfamiliar with them, The Orb is an electronic music group consisting of Alex Paterson and other guys who have rotated in and out. They started out in the early nineties pioneering ambient house and other dub-induced chillout music. Most of their stuff is ambient, but they tend to go all over the place sometimes, consistently creating fresh, innovative music out of whatever they find. One of their most popular songs, A Huge Ever Growing Pulsating Brain That Rules from the Centre of the Ultraworld, sampled such things as nature sounds, science fiction radio shows, and Minnie Riperton’s song “Lovin’ You,” for example, and most of their other stuff samples other songs and puts them together nicely.

A different popular song, Little Fluffy Clouds, ripped off an interview with Rickie Lee Jones in their song. Jones got angry and went to court for ripping off her copyrighted material. Eventually they settled, but Paterson has noted fans would go nuts if they found out where the drums came from.

Anyways, being an ambient, downtempo, sample-based band, they have longer mixes and remixes of their songs. On an old internet radio website called Groovetech, The Orb would play a few of these mixes– they came to be called “Thursday Tea Times.” Most were 2-3 hours long and incredibly enjoyable. My boss first alerted me to these mixes — he got a few from a friend, and since he knew I liked The Orb, he sent them along my way. I had four mixes of varying length, and all at terrible quality (96 kbps).

There are more of these mixes. Recently I was able to come across them due to some dumb luck and kindness by an absolute stranger– link to them here. These are my personal favorite pieces of music in the whole world, so get used to them. Download them all and listen to them and buy Orb albums.

The sweet thing is that these guys are still going strong.