Milwaukee Brewers Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), of everyone who has significant innings, 2009:

Trevor Hoffman – 2.54
Todd Coffey – 2.88
Mark DiFelice – 3.58
Yovani Gallardo – 3.92
Mitch Stetter – 3.98
Carlos Villanueva – 4.65
Manny Parra – 4.69
Jeff Suppan – 5.65
Braden Looper – 5.7
Dave Bush – 5.82
Seth McClung – 6.14

Milwaukee Brewers FIP of these pitchers throughout their career:

Trevor Hoffman – 2.99
Todd Coffey – 4.26
Mark DiFelice – 3.84
Yovani Gallardo – 3.72
Mitch Stetter – 4.17
Carlos Villanueva – 4.62
Manny Parra – 4.24
Jeff Suppan – 4.83
Braden Looper – 4.39
Dave Bush – 4.60
Seth McClung – 5.41

Merge the two together now. 2009′s FIP minus their career FIP:

Trevor Hoffman: -0.49
Todd Coffey: -1.38
Mark DiFelice: -0.26
Yovani Gallardo: 0.20
Mitch Stetter: -0.19
Carlos Villanueva: 0.03
Manny Parra: 0.45
Jeff Suppan: 0.82
Braden Looper: 1.31
Dave Bush: 1.22
Seth McClung: 0.73

Virtually every single starter on the Brewers’ staff has declined significantly in his secondary statistics this year. The great majority of these increased FIP numbers are largely due to the starters walking more people while the strikeouts remain the same. Manny Parra’s walk increase has been well-publicized, but the huge jumps made by Suppan, Looper, and even Dave Bush have been just as alarming. Did you know that Suppan and Looper are the two worst pitchers in the majors right now, according to WAR (Wins Above Replacement) levels right now?

If only one, or even two pitchers had a dramatic increase in walks and a subsequent implosion I wouldn’t be too concerned. But when your entire rotation has regressed pretty significantly suspicions should begin to arise that there’s a teamwide philosophy problem. Bill Castro is the new Brewers pitching coach this season after earning the job with 18 years as the bullpen coach. I’m thinking Castro is telling his pitchers to never give in, but whatever is the case the pitchers aren’t performing. It’s really starting to get ridiculous.

Meanwhile, down in Texas, the Rangers improved upon a staff that was abysmal last year with a teamwide 5.37 ERA to a stunningly good pitching staff with a 4.16 ERA. Mike Maddux recently switched from Milwaukee to Texas. He’s getting brilliant results from plugin pieces Scott Feldman and Vicente Padilla. Given, there’s been a few lucky pitchers and shifting Michael Young to third base created a much better defense, but dropping the ERA nearly a point with virtually the same pitching staff has also got to be part of a better organizational philosophy. At least, I’m convinced anyways, since Brewers starting pitching has been so much worse than normal this year.

So, what do you think? Is Billy Castro the problem? What should the Brewers do to turn down the walks? Are guys like Suppan and Looper just totally flaming out?

I don’t think there’s much hope left this season. The future doesn’t sound too great right now either.

Losing by 8 at home to the lowly Nationals is obviously the low point of the season. Tom H. has a new article up touching on the problems of the currently overworked bullpen, which one starting pitcher isn’t going to solve. I’ve long since advocated not giving up too much for a starting pitcher, and that’s only reinforced now that the pitchers are consistently awful. Rambling Al agrees that it’s no longer time to be buyers, and even toys with the idea of selling.

Selling would be interesting for the Brewers right now, but I’m not sure I’d sell any of those three guys. When Cameron signs somewhere else the Brewers will probably get a compensation draft pick at the end of the year. Hoffman’s too valuable and fun for the team to get rid of, and we need Braden Looper just to get through the rest of the season. J.J. Hardy would net an interesting return, but I’d wait until the end of the season since Alcides Escobar’s bat isn’t major-league ready quite yet and needs the rest of the year for some seasoning in AAA.

Obviously everyone’s disappointed in the awful Brew Crew play, but is it really that unexpected? Coming into the season all projections were at about a .500 team, and they’re pretty much around there right now. I don’t think anybody expected the pitching staff to be this bad, but they’ll have another hot streak sometime down the road and creep up back into playoff contention, I’m sure. They just happen to be mired in a super long slump right now.

Until then, keep hopin’.