After a couple-month-long school/work hiatus, we’re soon to start posting again, so check back next week as I write down my thoughts in the coming couple of weeks.
Who knows, maybe we’ll actually be interesting this time.
Barring some very good performances against playoff-bound teams in the last four games of the season, the Brewers are bound to finish up a disappointing season after beginning the season with high expectations and spending the first half of the season in first place in the division.
It took a hot streak by the Cardinals and some really terrible Brewer pitching in late July to shift the balance of power, but if you remember at the beginning of the season most people in the know predicted the Brewers to finish right around .500 after not being able to sign C.C. Sabathia during the offseason. I was one of those people. When the pitching was good early on in the season, everyone suddenly had expectations to be in the thick of the playoff race come September. All of a sudden they regressed backwards quite a bit and it’s been a disappointing 2009.
What most casual fans will find irritating is that the starting pitching won’t change, with the exception of Braden Looper, who’s been so godawful this season there’s a pretty high chance they won’t pick up his $6 million mutual option. However, the core of this year’s starting rotation (Gallardo-Bush-Parra-Suppan) will almost for sure be back next year barring a couple unexpected dealings.
Gallardo is obviously the staff ace, and is cost-controlled for awhile. Bush is still under arbitration, and an offseason of rest will do him good and clear the recent struggles out of his mind — he’s an obvious lock for a rotation spot, as he’s still under arbitration. Quite a bit has been made of Manny Parra’s struggles this season, but he’s still incredibly cheap and is a prime candidate for a bounceback year in 2010.
That makes three super cheap contracts for three pitchers (probably about $6 million of salary combined will go towards these three pitchers), and if we expect bounceback years from both Bush and Parra, that’s not a lot of cash invested in three young, quality pitchers.
Jeff Suppan, on the other hand, is an albatross contract ($12.5 million next year) who’s going to stay on the team just because Milwaukee has no way to get rid of him, barring some lucky goldstrike where some dumb team wants to take on the contract of an old, quickly-declining pitcher who wasn’t really that good in the first place. Unless Mark A. wants to avoid investment embarassment, though, Suppan is still a starter.*
Anyways, we should expect to see vast improvements out of two of those guys (Bush and Parra), and with the only problems with the offense being who’s playing where, the Brewers should have a legitimate shot to contend next year. Prince and Braun are staples of a fantastic offense. If the pitchers can combine to throw a 4.5 ERA next year, which isn’t spectacular by any means, the Brewers should be playoff bound.
*One of the things I’ve truly never understood in management is the willingness to admit a mistake. Everyone knew the Suppan contract was a terrible idea from the beginning… and yet, next year, the Brewers will inevitably throw Jeff out there every 5th day because they’re investing 1/8 of their payroll into him.
Why wouldn’t upper management just say, “Hey, fan base, we made a mistake, and we’re willing to admit it,” and DFA Jeff Suppan or trade him for a bucket of baseballs. There are cheaper pitchers in the minor league system that can be brought up or other alternative options that will win the team more ballgames.
I mean, Milwaukee could pick up a different free agent pitcher or find someone else (Carlos Villanueva?) to take the ball every 5th day, and their chances of winning would increase by quite a bit… considering next year I think the Brewers will be in the thick of the wild card race again, the difference between a 5.32 ERA pitcher and a 4.6 ERA pitcher is really, really relevant.
Unfortunately, baseball executives don’t want to admit public embarassment over their signings so this will never happen.
Our very own dark horse Rookie of the Year candidate Casey McGehee has not-so-quietly had a spectacular year for Milwaukee, putting up a line of .304/.370/.515 in his rookie year with 15 homers in only 335 PA. If he didn’t split playing time with other guys and didn’t sit out with an injury on the year, we’d be talking 20-25 home runs… and all with no splits whatsoever.
I’d say he should be the starting third-baseman for the Brewers next year along with Mat Gamel, but then I took another look at his minor league stats before this year. His minor league OPS is career .100 points lower than it’s been in the major leagues, and he’s benefited from a high BABIP this year, both sure signs that Casey’s going to drop off a little bit.
He should regress down to career norms and then some, and you might even be able to sell high on him if the Brewers are really convinced that Gamel is the future at third. However, it doesn’t really make sense for the Brewers to do that since Gamel’s really bad at defense and there’s an open position in the outfield. And besides, even if McGehee does have a hard regression year, he’s still valuable to have on the team. A .725-ish OPS with positive defense at third is definitely valuable when you consider he’s still a pre-arbitration player and will make league minimum.
In other words, if I were running the team, I’d be a little wary of how he’s going to do starting the year at 3B, since he’s 27 and hasn’t yet put up an OPS above .750 in the minors ever, but since he’s a low-risk player with virtually no hit on the budget he shouldn’t even be considered a candidate to sell high or get sent back down to the minors. We should all be proponents of rewarding players for doing well for your team regardless of how much of a mirage it is — what kind of message do you send to the other players if Casey gets sent back down to AAA after putting up a .900 OPS during his rookie season?
There’s an old baseball adage among GMs that the first two months of the season are for seeing what your team has and what it needs, the next two months are spent improving your team and fillings its gaps, and the last two are the final product fighting to the finish line.
Once upon a time there were two mid-market teams who hadn’t made the playoffs for a couple years and through two months of the season were competing for a playoff birth. Both were in the same position. Both have payrolls within $2.5 million of each other. One team traded a couple of prospects away for a big-name star that performed really well, while the other pretty much stood pat and slowly faded away into oblivion over the next few months. Sound familiar?
Last year, Milwaukee traded away prospects to get C.C. Sabathia, a deal that got them their first playoff birth in over 25 years. He started 17 games and had a 1.65 ERA (260 ERA+) and was the talk of all of baseball as he dominated his way through opposing lineups. He was a Type A free agent at the end of the season… meaning the Brewers were going to get (or, were supposed to get) supplemental draft picks at the end of the season. They ended up riding his back to the postseason, as other contenders in the NL Wild Card race eventually faded away.
This year, St. Louis traded away prospects to get Matt Holliday, a deal that will send them to the playoffs for the first time since they won the World Series in 2006. Since Holliday was acquired from the Oakland A’s he’s hit .379/.432/.702 with 12 HR in 161 AB… that’s incredible, and now the Cardinals have the largest division lead in the NL. It’s not a coincidence.
Holliday is also a Type A free agent, meaning St. Louis should get some draft picks for their trouble. Both teams gave up a pretty elite prospect (Matt LaPorta and Brett Wallace) for each stud, and each is benefiting from the transaction.
This year it looks like it’s St. Louis’ for the taking… last year Milwaukee did the exact same thing but they couldn’t take advantage of the Phillies while the Cardinals didn’t do anything at the deadline and slowly faded away. This year it’s the other way around. It’s their turn now, go figure.
Yesterday’s game against the Cardinals was brilliantly pitched by Chris Carpenter, as he gave up only one hit in a complete game shutout. It was a day game, of which the Brewers have no idea how to hit in anymore, and thrown by Carpenter, who has a reputation around these parts to be really, really good — remember, he shut us out before.
If I asked you what Brewers hitter got that hit, what do you think the over/under would be on the number of players you’d guess before you said Jody Gerut? Six? Seven? Ten? Jody got the only hit yesterday against Carpenter, giving him an OPS of .807 over his last few appearances.
Gerut is a 31-year-old smart guy who graduated from Stanford and is the answer to a future trivia question (“Who hit the first home run in Citi Field?”). He’s also been the butt of many a joke for his total inability to hit this year… so far he’s .212/.263/.344 this year with plus D in center field this year. Even though his range in center is good and has always been good, that batting line does not make up for it. But what do his overall stats say?
212 at-bats isn’t nearly enough to get a good evaluation of a player, so let’s take a look at everything else he’s done over his career. He’s been really up-and-down, like last year, where he hit .296/.351/.494 with plus defense and 14 home runs, or like 2005, where he didn’t muster that much in 170 at-bats before he got injured. But this year’s been by far his worst — only OBP under .330 (nearly 70 points lower this year!), BA of Balls in play of .232… he’s the one guy on the team you know will improve eventually if you give him enough at-bats.
Keep in mind too that he’s still in his arbitration years and managed to get a little over $1 million in salary last year… getting him for $2 million seems a lot more attractive than Mike Cameron in center next year. It’s an extra few million the Brewers would save… it’s an extra few million to spend on a starting pitcher.
And remember… he’s starting to improve already. Look at his last 14 games. Take a look at him these last couple of weeks, it would look pretty good to me like it would save him a job for 2010.
If we resigned Gerut, the three OF spots would be locked with Braun-Gerut-Hart in RF, with the only possible exception being Hart getting shipped off for some starting pitching and moving Gamel to right, and Bourgeois and maybe Brendan Katin as backups. In the IF, it’d be a McGehee/Counsell platoon (if Craig resigns), Escobar, Weeks, and Fielder. That would also save a lot of money if we didn’t resign Felipe Lopez either.
Also, for the record, I don’t think Gallardo-Parra-Bush-FA pitcher-Suppan is that bad for next year. Certainly could keep up just fine with that offense.
This has been kind of a weird season for me as a fan.
Early on, my wife and I were very intensely into the season, watching almost every game, and listening when we couldn’t. We attended 3 games early on in the season, and lived and died with the team.
However, there was the wedding on the horizon, and as the team slowly slipped out of their early season high, and with me adjusting to not having the time to follow everything I could possibly want to follow, June and July came and went with us losing our grip on the day to day events of the team. Yes, we knew they were slipping, and we knew in general why, it was just hard to concentrate on it like we had been.
August was a lost month for me as far as my fandom went. I had started a new job in July, further lowering the amount of time I had to follow my squad, and with the wedding being the fourth weekend of the month, we still had lots to do.
Two weeks later, after the honeymoon last weekend, and the “getting back to reality” phase that still hasn’t completely finished yet, it’s still difficult to ensure I’m watching even two or three full games a week. It’s only with the likes of Brew Crew Ball, Right Field Bleachers, and the work Cody does here that’s kept me in the loop.
The words I’ve been reading from the three sources have been mostly frustration, bemoaning the lack of pitching and the lack of a catcher that knows what a bat is. In other words, the same conclusions I’ve come to.
It’s not all bad news, though. Even sitting here at 66-71, it’s been one of the better seasons of the decade. Today’s food for thought is the record of this team over the past 10 seasons, with this year included as a partial entry.
1. 2008 (90-72, .556)
2. 2007 (83-79, .512)
3. 2005 (81-81, .500)
4. 2009 (66-71, .482)
5. 2006 (75-87, .463)
6. 2000 (73-89, .451)
7a. 2001 (68-94, .420)
7b. 2003 (68-94, .420)
9. 2004 (67-94, .416)
10. 2002 (56-106, .346)
There have been better days, but for the most part, there have been worse days.
I was gone all weekend at a kickball tournament in Eau Claire (took 3rd!) this weekend, so I didn’t get much time to pay attention to the Brewers this weekend. Quite a bit happened while I was away, it appears, and there’s quite a bit to talk about regardless now that September callups are coming up today.
Now that J.J. Hardy is finally getting called back to the team, it’s official that the Brewers have deceptively played with his service time in order to delay the beginning of free agency. Quite a bit has already been made of delaying Hardy’s service time… to paraphrase, these few weeks in the minor leagues have limited Hardy’s major league service time so that his arbitration years extend beyond next year. If he would’ve stayed in the majors, he’d hit free agnecy at the end of next year. Now that they kept him in the minors, he doesn’t hit free agency until the end of 2011.
This is an obvious attempt to bolster his trade value in an otherwise down year, now that Alcides Escobar appears headed for the role of full-time shortstop. Two years of great defense and an average bat under controlled prices is still an extremely valuable commodity and I don’t blame Melvin for getting what they could for Hardy after he posted a down year. While I’m not as down on him as Rambling Al is, but when you have a similarly attractive option for $4 million cheaper, then you trade the more expendable piece. Melvin could probably pull some strings and work a trade with the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez — Edgar Renteria isn’t doing it for them and they could get rid of him if they ate some of his salary, and GM Brian Sabean doesn’t really have the best trade history in the world. It’d make next year’s rotation Gallardo-Sanchez-Parra-Bush-Suppan, which would be formidable with next year’s bats. That’s speculation for the offseason, though, and should stay that way until rumors start to swirl.
The stories coming out of Brewers camp now that Hardy’s getting called back have painted the organization as being cold and unforgiving while J.J. feels lost and betrayed by getting sent down to the minors, but both he and his agent have to realize that baseball is a business, and businesses must do everything to maximize revenue and value among their products… especially when the value of those products are going south. Adding an additional cheap year to his contract could mean the difference between getting a prospect and a major-league ready starter for next year.
On the other hand, I’d be angry to hear the organization screwed me out of millions of dollars myself, so I’m not going to expect Hardy to go on one of his patented hot streaks, as other things will probably still be on his mind.
As for other callups today, they’ll also definitely pull up Chris Smith, Mike Burns, and probably Tim Dillard for some pitching help. Along with Hardy, expect Mat Gamel to see some playing time after re-learning how to tear the cover off the ball in AAA, as well as Hernan Iribarren and Corey Hart when he returns from the DL. It’d be decent to get Angel Salome back up too…although I don’t know how much playing time he’ll get, he’ll definitely be able to take a few things in from working with Jason Kendall frequently, since the only knock on his abilities so far has been that he lacks the proper instincts and knowledge that catchers usually have. But, he’s been injured and hasn’t seen action recently, so who knows how patient the Brewers will be with him.
Really, Salome and Gamel are the only two players I’m excited to see get called up here, as the rest are non-prospects just stuck on the 40-man for some added depth. When next year and 2011 come and we start seeing the likes of Jonathan Lucroy, Brett Lawrie, and others… then color me really excited for September callups.
For all intensive purposes, the Milwaukee Brewers out of the race to get to the playoffs. BP’s Playoff Odds pin them as having less than a 1 in 200 chance at making the postseason, and the pitching isn’t going to improve too much anytime soon — Dave Bush may be back for the rest of the year, but then again, so is Jeff Suppan.
With this year’s playoff hopes coming to a close, players and managers are starting to send letters to the rest of the team, alerting them on their progress and intentions as next year and beyond becomes the focal point of the Crew’s direction. Doug Melvin recently sent an exclusive letter to all important staff and players on the team about the direction of Milwaukee. Through people I know at my internship at Fox Sports Wisconsin, I was able to obtain a copy of the letter. Here’s an exclusive look at what Dougie had to say to his team. This is copied word for word I swear:
Dear Friends,
As another season starts drawing to a close, I just wanted to thank you all for the successfull year we had. We have been drawing record numbers to the ballpark and our following continues to grow. Overall I’ve been really pleased with the effort this ballclub and its staff have shown throughout the season. With that said, our season was unsuccessful in the regard that we didn’t make the playoffs. In this letter, I want to address the parts of the organization that need to improve if we hope to win the World Series.
The most obvious thing that everybody’s been talking about is the starting pitching. You guys have been great for us this year, you really have. Your leadership and perseverance through some tough time has really impressed me and the rest of the players on the team. Unfortunately, fans were angry at you guys for the millions of dollars you make to supposedly shit the bed, and I had to make someone the scapegoat. Luckily for you guys, I made sure to not bruise your multimillion dollar spirits and fired Bill Castro instead. Anything for you guys.
One can only hope that our immense pool of pitching talent can propel us forward into a contender. While our ERAs may not look good, morale is strong! Braden, when you won the “Jason Kendall Lookalike Contest” in the clubhouse, and started cating like a crazy lumberjack, I couldn’t stop laughing! Whipping out a chainsaw and trying to buzz off the head of Cammy for not catching one of your gopher balls was hilarious.
You know what else I love about you guys? Walks. Guys on base is intense. It makes the game more entertaining. Trying to see you guys work out of a 3-1 jam with the bases loaded up by a run is exhilarating. Sure, you end up walking the guy or giving up a meatball or something, but who cares? It was really fun while it lasted. Jeff, this is why I give you $44 million dollars — you’re the most exciting player on the team. I can’t wait to have you back next year. Manny, you’re almost quite at Soup’s level — really, I only drafted you because I thought you were that one goofy longhair’s son. It turns out you were a pitcher, so you know. We’ll row with the punches.
If there’s one thing fans love, it’s runs. That’s why we have you, Prince and Ryan, and you, Carlos. But, enough about this year, let’s talk about next year.
Jeff, if you don’t shape up by the end of the year, you’re going the same route that Billy Hall took earlier this year.
Manny, you’re still cool with me. I think you’ll bounce back, and we’ll get a pitching coach who will teach you to be an actual smart pitcher.
Braden, I secretly hope to trade you before this year is done, but if that’s not possible we’ll just throw you to the wayside. Same goes for you Trevor.
Cammy, you’re too expensive for us now. We’ll offer you arbitration, but you won’t want it and you’ll instead deservedly make your money somewhere else, like in New York or something.
J.J., you’re not useful to us anymore. I got sick of you as soon as we had to send you to AAA. And, oh yeah, I did screw with your service time and screwed you out of millions of dollars. All in a day’s work.
Jason, you won’t be on the team next year unless our youngins have no idea how to call a game. Even if you do get called back to be with us, you’ll be in a backup role, helping the young guys along the way.
Todd, watching you spring to the diamond makes me feel great about my physique. And I’ve never played baseball. Or any sport, for that matter.
Yovani, mind if you become the staff ace for the next 4-5 years while we learn to develop pitching? Don’t get hurt and we’ll take good care of you. Sound good?I look forward to the future of this ballclub and I think we can provide prime entertainment for the fans as we look forward to our first World Series birth since 1982. We’re all in this together and I know we can persevere and make it through this tough month and keep an eye on 2010. Thanks and have a wonderful season!
Sincerely,
Doug “Moustachio” Melvin
I’ve been out of the Brewers loop for the last little while, what with my wedding on Saturday and all that, but I’d just like to commend Doug Melvin for getting Seattle to pay even a little bit of Bill Hall’s 2010 salary. Any little bit helps.
With Mike Cameron‘s $10 million salary coming off the books at the beginning of next year, it’s unlikely the Brewers will offer him arbitration and he’ll get a two/three year deal with a team in need of a center fielder that has more money available to spend than the Brewers. This could be different had the Brewers not wrapped up nearly 1/4 of next year’s salary in Jeff Suppan and Bill Hall… but that’s the way it is, and the Brewers aren’t likely to have a clear center fielder for 2010 by this offseason.
So what are the options? Tom Haudricourt suggested a plan I liked in a chat with the fans last week:
I am the Brewers’ GM. This is what I do before Opening Day 2010: Trade Hart and Hardy and any prospect not named Gamel or Escobar for some starting pitching. There certainly isn’t any coming through the system right now. I’d re-sign Felipe Lopez to play second, move Rickie Weeks to center, move Mat Gamel to right and install Casey McGehee as my third baseman and Alcides Escobar as my shortstop. I’d sign Kendall for one more year and let him tutor Angel Salome in a backup role. I’d take that team to battle and see what happens.
This is a good idea in principle, but forcing Weeks to learn one of the most important defensive positions in a span of one offseason is more difficult to do than it sounds and I’m not ready to trot out a 2010 lineup with two-thirds of the outfield playing a position they’ve never played competitively before. Besides, throwing Mat Gamel in right field is basically giving up on all the work that’s been put into him at 3B, and since I heard his defensive stats aren’t that terrible after extensive work with defensive whiz Don Money I’m not ready to give up on his defense quite yet (as unnatural as it may look). He’s the third-base version of Rickie Weeks.
Instead who should be playing center is a combo plate of Jason Bourgeois and Jody Gerut. Gerut has been having a real down year but has gotten better lately and with any smidgen of consistent playing time down the stretch he could really stretch himself out into a full-or-half time player again.
Bourgeois is pretty good against left-handers and Gerut is pretty good against righties. Since they’re both competent defensively, I don’t see why an .800/.825 OPS and average-to-pretty-good D in center field will harm the Brewers anyways, and they’re going to be paying Gerut something around $1.5 million anyways through arbitration, it’ll be a little $2 million steal in center. It’ll be one of those moves Doug Melvin always seems to make.
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J.J. Hardy Update: .154/.214/.462/.676 in 13 ABs. Small sample size, but he’s been hitting balls really weakly all season long. I wouldn’t mind if he saves his best for last — between this and tampering with Hardy’s service time, Dougie Mustache could pull off a pretty sly move for a starting pitcher, since a cheap shortstop who’s still valuable despite being awful with the bat who’s under control for two more years it an incredibly valuable commodity, especially to an SS-hungry team like Boston.
He has to do it against AAA pitching though.
