Don’t forget to follow @brewerparadise on twitter, where I post more than just blogs! Those posts are only allowed to be 140 characters, so you don’t have to read all the garble we post here!
Adam McCalvy:
Manager Ken Macha intends to start Rivera for a second straight game when Yovani Gallardo takes the mound against the Astros at Miller Park.
And why not? Rivera, who has been with the Brewers all season but only had 63 at-bats before Thursday, belted a pair of home runs and drove in four as Milwaukee beat up on, then held off the Padres to salvage a win in the series finale. Macha wouldn’t commit past Friday, but the sense was that Rivera, who provides some pop to an offense that, outside of Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Mike Cameron has little, could see more playing time over the final six weeks.
Is Mike Rivera finally going to get a chance at some decent playing time? Remember what I posted last week:
I know it’s impossible to quantify the catcher’s defensive prowess outside of stealing percentages (and even then can it get waffly), but I really think there’s a position somewhere on this baseball diamond the Brewers need to address.
Angel Salome and Jonathan LuCroy are waiting in the wings but still aren’t ready. With Kendall becoming a free agent at the end of this year, would the Brewers really try and resign him?
It’s been recommended more than once to resign Kendall to a one year deal and bring up Salome to be the backup and learn from Kendall, who’s seen as one of those really intelligent baseball people who could teach the defensively-challenged Salome a thing or two about the catching position. Giving him a coaching position and not letting him play would be a better option, since Kendall’s barely been replacement level this year and has made two black holes in the Brewers’ lineup.
Well the Crew shook things up Wednesday, sending J.J. Hardy to Nashville, firing pitching coach Bill Castro, and DFA’d Bill Hall. They’ve been teetering on the end of desperation for awhile now and getting rid of the pitching coach and worst player on the team were two moves that pretty much had to be made, although shipping Hardy down definitely was the biggest surprise of the bunch.
I’ve written about Bill Castro before, so I personally like the move. Castro didn’t do the best job of training the pitchers and it showed in their peripheral stats. They brought in AAA-Nashville’s pitching coach
Hardy has been in a seemingly season-long slump, hitting only .229/.300/.367, a far cry from his career line of .262/.323/.431 line. His hitting definitely has slumped, and it seems like he’s hitting a ton of fly balls to the warning track and just hasn’t been able to put it together yet this season.
On the surface, this seems like a move to get Hardy back on track and to get Alcides Escobar his first extended look at big league pitching in a move for 2010. The most probable course of action I initially thought was going to happen was that Hardy will work on some things in AAA for a couple weeks, then hopefully come back and rake in the majors again to raise his trade stock for the offseason. It seems like a logical gamble, especially since Escobar could use some at-bats against major league pitching, but it’s risky nevertheless — to send someone down to the minors is not the best way to get the best return for Hardy if or when he gets traded.
I’d argue though that to send J.J. back down to AAA and leave him there for the rest of the year is the best thing to do to raise his trade stock for this offseason.
Hardy was on the 40-man roster at the beginning of the 2005 season. If he spends the rest of his time in AAA this year, he’ll have less than 5 years of major league service time at the end of next year, so then he’ll be under team control for 2011 as well. Considering that teams by now should have a good idea that Hardy’s going to have a bounceback season, he’ll still be viewed as a valuable piece. Keeping him in AAA to get him two more years of cheap service time for another team is much more valuable to a team than raising his stock a little bit for just one year of a cheap shortstop.
That’s a sly move by Doug Melvin if that’s what he’s planning to do. Some team will give up as least one major-league caliber starting pitcher for JJ next year, as his defensive numbers htis year are as good as ever and he’s continually improving on that front. A team like the Red Sox will still give up a pretty penny for two years of a cost-controlled quality shortstop and could even buy out those two years of arbitration and free agency with a long term deal if he’s dealt over there.
The difference between two years of a cost-controlled shortstop and just one is monumental. I imagine for a year of J.J. a team would be willing to give up a marginally good pitcher like Jason Marquis; for two years, we’re talking about a potential stud prospect or actual quality pitcher, which could amount to a good 3 wins next year.
Anyways I hope that’s what the Brewers do.
Numerous times I’ve pointed out on BPL that the Brewers made the right move by not making any major trades for a Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay since the Brewers were blowing smoke and mirrors during their hot stretch at the beginning of the year and they’re too flawed to justify overspending for a band-aid to heal a broken arm.
They haven’t overpaid for any starting pitching yet which tells me they realize they’re more than one egg short of a carton and instead have dealt for two relievers, Claudio Vargas and now David Weathers, in addition to buying Jesus Colome. Brewers relief pitching isn’t that great but is hardly a cause for concern. Not only are the starters much worse and pitch many more innings, but the difference between Trevor Hoffman and Todd Coffey and Chris Smith and Seth McClung is pretty significant. A large difference in quality between your high-leverage relievers and your low-leverage ones might put a dent in your bullpen’s ERA, but it doesn’t actually take much away from their overall quality, since I tend to measure bullpen performance in terms of what guys are performing in high-leverage situations.
So then why did the Brewers go out of their way to get three relievers instead of address the starting pitching they so desperately need?
David Weathers is an old veteran who’s now with his second stint in Milwaukee. He tosses an 88-mph fastball, slider, and changeup, which is pretty typical, and his career 4.24 ERA looks like an average pitcher to bolster the bullpen. This year he actually has a 3.32 ERA, which means he’s doing pretty well for himself in a homer-happy park in Cincinatti.
His peripheral stats are a different story, though. This year’s been a bit different than his normal. His strikeouts and walks have stayed the same, but he’s suddenly developed a home run problem that makes his low 3.32 ERA pretty misleading and his peripheral stats actually worse than past years, so he actually should be getting worse, not any better. He’s sporting an ugly FIP over 5, so we shouldn’t be surprised if he gets much worse as the season progresses and his stats regress to his career numbers. He’s not really an upgrade over what they have right now, and he’s a little pricey for a reliever anyways, so the move definitely doesn’t make much sense if the Brewers are planning on contending this year.
Read what Weathers had to say about it:
“I had no idea; it was a total shock,” said Weathers when reached by telephone. “I’m excited. I loved it when I was in Milwaukee and I’m excited to be coming back.
“I know the Brewers are still in the race and that’ll be fun. I haven’t pitched as much as usual this year so I feel really fresh. I feel like I can finish the season strong.
“I know a lot of the guys there and I’m ready to get out there with them.”
See why the Brewers got him? The pen has been overworked by anyone’s standards and a fresh arm is just what they need so they can get some R&R the rest of this season.
Jesus Colome was a DFA pickup after getting released by the Nationals after sporting an ugly 7.88 ERA and a WHIP of nearly 2 in 16 innings for the Nationals. 16 innings really isn’t really a big enough sample size to judge one pitcher, but he’s been a career 4.62 ERA pitcher with a poor strikeout to walk ratio and a seemingly average-to-poor reliever that Doug Melvin just loves to grab from the scrapheap. He can be counted on to eat some innings since he’s had a nice extended break this season and has only pitched a few innings.
Claudio Vargas is another ex-Brewer coming back for his second stint with the club. Considering he wasn’t doing much with the Dodgers and it only took a backup career catcher at best to get another fresh reliever on the club, it wasn’t a bad move to try and keep the rest of the bullpen rested for the stretch. Claudio used to start for the Brewers and would always frustratingly nibble on the outside corner, and lots of walks and poor pitching in general is what makes up Milwaukee’s starting rotation is something the Brewers tend to gravitate towards so he’ll be able to spot start whenever necessary.
Milwaukee hasn’t really upgraded their pen any by gathering a few middle relievers who sport frustrating ERAs, and the Crew have only fallen out of the race further, being 6 games back with 51 to play, their furthest back in quite some time. I suspect all three of these moves are related just to give the bullpen a break and provide Ken Macha with some more flexibility in the 6th and 7th innings. I don’t think it’s an attempt to bolster the bullpen for a playoff run.
With the recent lukewarm streak the Brew Crew have been on, I’ve become a little more optimistic about this season, despite the pedestrian loss last night. Even though the playoffs are a distant memory, there’s no reason not to be a happy Brewer fan. Here are a few things I’m grinning about as the dog days of August turns its exhausted head…
1) Doug Melvin did the right thing by standing pat at the trade deadline. This is a little bit late, but Melvin and company did nothing to address the thin pitching outside of getting Claudio Vargas from the Dodgers. This is a bit late, but Milwaukee’s pitching was too barren to justify overpaying for one pitcher and to sacrifice prospects for pitchers who weren’t a sure thing in the first place.
Melvin said the main reason a trade deal for a pitcher wasn’t made was because the Brewers had very few pitching prospects to give up and that’s the return most teams wanted for a starting pitcher. This makes sense. But, when teams want the starting pitching, and you don’t have any… you’re getting back 25 cents on the dollar for each other prospect since they’re not as imperative to the deal.
Melvin’s clear history in valuing prospects and bargain bin deals over expensive free agents means he’s not willing to get such a low return on them even if it compromises the quality of this year’s team. Strategies like that for a mid-market team like the Brewers are necessary if they’re going to be able to become any kind of perennial playoff team.
2) 2009 isn’t looking too bad. Despite last night’s loss, the Crew are only five games out. While they’re still technically sliding deeper down into the NL Central basement, BP’s playoff odds think they’ll only have a four percent chance at making the postseason. But there are still a high chance that the Brewers make a run at it, even if they don’t make it to the postseason.
Admit it, if the Brewers were 2 games out of it come the final week and they don’t make the playoffs, 2010 is going to be a really fun year to watch, as the core of the team will feel they need redemption for it. It’ll just make next year that much more entertaining and fun to watch.
2010 isn’t looking too bad either. In his chat transcript he had earlier today, Tom Haudricourt recommended changing up the lineup in 2010 to include resigning Felipe Lopez to a deal this offseason and moving Rickie Weeks to center field to make up for the loss of Mike Cameron and trading J.J. Hardy for major-league ready starting pitching.
I am the Brewers’ GM. This is what I do before Opening Day 2010: Trade Hart and Hardy and any prospect not named Gamel or Escobar for some starting pitching. There certainly isn’t any coming through the system right now. I’d re-sign Felipe Lopez to play second, move Rickie Weeks to center, move Mat Gamel to right and install Casey McGehee as my third baseman and Alcides Escobar as my shortstop. I’d sign Kendall for one more year and let him tutor Angel Salome in a backup role. I’d take that team to battle and see what happens.
This actually would be an interesting strategy, but the pitchers are going to have an awful time on the mound if Weeks’ athleticism doesn’t translate into immediate success, because starting two thirds of your outfield by guys who have never played before isn’t going to be an incredibly smooth transition.
Another reason this strategy might now work is because Melvin would be trading Hardy for cents on the dollar due to his unproductive 2009 so far (unless he can turn on the jets for the last couple months of the season). Unless Melvin can get teams to realize Hardy’s true value, it wouldn’t be right to blast him away for some marginal prospects when Escobar still might not be major-league ready.
I’ve written before on why I think Hardy is one of the top-10 shortstops in MLB and that Alcides Escobar isn’t quite major-league ready yet. Things will obviously change between now and 2010, so Hardy could really get hot and zoom up his trade stock, but as of this post, let’s assume he’ll finish with a .227/.298/.367 line with plus defense at short.
A viable trade deadline next year could be this: Hardy remains a Brewer this season after a 2009 (he won’t come too expensively as he enters his final year of arbitration), while Escobar’s bat gets some more seasoning in the minors. Hardy rebounds a little bit, and scouts start really liking him again. The Brewers then trade him off for whatever pieces are needed to make a playoff push next year, and with a Lopez-Weeks-Braun-Fielder-Gamel lineup, pitchers shouldn’t have too much of a problem staying in games.
I mean, this is all hypothetical hearsay, but that really could get Doug Melvin just as much return on Hardy as trading him before his final year of arbitration. Trading Hardy and replacing him with another piece that should be nearly as good while getting a different kind of brilliant return seems like the shrewd move Doug Melvin’s been known to do during his years as a GM.
What do you guys think? Should J.J. be traded over the offseason? Through a waiver deal?
It’s been a tough weekend to be a Brewers fan. To keep things simple, I’ll just list off what made it so hard.
1. Losing a 7-1 lead to one of the worst teams in baseball.
2. Losing Corey Hart for a month just as he’s starting to come around.
3. Having Bill Hall return so quickly without getting many at-bats at Nashville. So much for a chance to turn it around.
4. I hate disagreeing with Doug Melvin, especially on something I normally love, which is his ability to find the free talent out there and turn it into something useful, but I can’t help but think that Corey Patterson may be stretching it a bit. Claudio Vargas, on the other hand, was exactly what he needed to do, get an arm for a player we’d never use again anyway, most likely.
5. Ending the weekend under .500 isn’t a great way to show that things are turning around.
That’s all I have, for the moment. Hopefully I’ll be posting about some positives next time around.
So a few days after I call for management to consider releasing Bill Hall, they do me one better and send him down to AAA.
This works because if Hall is really seeing the ball better, we’ll find out soon enough, and he could also be seen by other teams while he’s playing well, if that is indeed the case.
At worst, he’s not taking up a roster spot on the big club, and the team knows what they have in Hall. They can then release him at that point, but know for sure that it’s the right decision.
I did want to mention that I liked Hall’s attitude about things, something I wasn’t picking up a few days ago. Here’s hoping that Billy does well, and all turns out well for him, whereever he ends up.
Milwaukee Brewers Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), of everyone who has significant innings, 2009:
Trevor Hoffman – 2.54
Todd Coffey – 2.88
Mark DiFelice – 3.58
Yovani Gallardo – 3.92
Mitch Stetter – 3.98
Carlos Villanueva – 4.65
Manny Parra – 4.69
Jeff Suppan – 5.65
Braden Looper – 5.7
Dave Bush – 5.82
Seth McClung – 6.14
Milwaukee Brewers FIP of these pitchers throughout their career:
Trevor Hoffman – 2.99
Todd Coffey – 4.26
Mark DiFelice – 3.84
Yovani Gallardo – 3.72
Mitch Stetter – 4.17
Carlos Villanueva – 4.62
Manny Parra – 4.24
Jeff Suppan – 4.83
Braden Looper – 4.39
Dave Bush – 4.60
Seth McClung – 5.41
Merge the two together now. 2009′s FIP minus their career FIP:
Trevor Hoffman: -0.49
Todd Coffey: -1.38
Mark DiFelice: -0.26
Yovani Gallardo: 0.20
Mitch Stetter: -0.19
Carlos Villanueva: 0.03
Manny Parra: 0.45
Jeff Suppan: 0.82
Braden Looper: 1.31
Dave Bush: 1.22
Seth McClung: 0.73
Virtually every single starter on the Brewers’ staff has declined significantly in his secondary statistics this year. The great majority of these increased FIP numbers are largely due to the starters walking more people while the strikeouts remain the same. Manny Parra’s walk increase has been well-publicized, but the huge jumps made by Suppan, Looper, and even Dave Bush have been just as alarming. Did you know that Suppan and Looper are the two worst pitchers in the majors right now, according to WAR (Wins Above Replacement) levels right now?
If only one, or even two pitchers had a dramatic increase in walks and a subsequent implosion I wouldn’t be too concerned. But when your entire rotation has regressed pretty significantly suspicions should begin to arise that there’s a teamwide philosophy problem. Bill Castro is the new Brewers pitching coach this season after earning the job with 18 years as the bullpen coach. I’m thinking Castro is telling his pitchers to never give in, but whatever is the case the pitchers aren’t performing. It’s really starting to get ridiculous.
Meanwhile, down in Texas, the Rangers improved upon a staff that was abysmal last year with a teamwide 5.37 ERA to a stunningly good pitching staff with a 4.16 ERA. Mike Maddux recently switched from Milwaukee to Texas. He’s getting brilliant results from plugin pieces Scott Feldman and Vicente Padilla. Given, there’s been a few lucky pitchers and shifting Michael Young to third base created a much better defense, but dropping the ERA nearly a point with virtually the same pitching staff has also got to be part of a better organizational philosophy. At least, I’m convinced anyways, since Brewers starting pitching has been so much worse than normal this year.
So, what do you think? Is Billy Castro the problem? What should the Brewers do to turn down the walks? Are guys like Suppan and Looper just totally flaming out?
Friends, family, and everyone else,
We gather here today to mourn the loss of our friend, the 2009 season.
It was a good season, a fun season — it had its ups and downs, like any fun season. We stuck with it through the thick and thin, and wanted so hard for them to succeed… but we didn’t expect it to end this early. Its life was too short.
***
Of course the season isn’t actually over yet, since the Brewers are only 4.5 games out of first place in a terribly weak division. But with the way things are going right now they won’t be contending for long, and unless the battered pitching staff can pull something out of its ass they’ll be giving up 8-10 runs on a nightly basis. Expect another post later today on the pitching staff, unless some kind of trade breaks through…
Hopefully Doug Melvin is pulling something out here. Washburn, Morrow, and Clement for Hardy + another prospect? Who knows — he’s probably going to the Yankees. They’ve shown interest. We’ll see.