Brewer Paradise Lost

I don’t think there’s much hope left this season. The future doesn’t sound too great right now either.

Losing by 8 at home to the lowly Nationals is obviously the low point of the season. Tom H. has a new article up touching on the problems of the currently overworked bullpen, which one starting pitcher isn’t going to solve. I’ve long since advocated not giving up too much for a starting pitcher, and that’s only reinforced now that the pitchers are consistently awful. Rambling Al agrees that it’s no longer time to be buyers, and even toys with the idea of selling.

Selling would be interesting for the Brewers right now, but I’m not sure I’d sell any of those three guys. When Cameron signs somewhere else the Brewers will probably get a compensation draft pick at the end of the year. Hoffman’s too valuable and fun for the team to get rid of, and we need Braden Looper just to get through the rest of the season. J.J. Hardy would net an interesting return, but I’d wait until the end of the season since Alcides Escobar’s bat isn’t major-league ready quite yet and needs the rest of the year for some seasoning in AAA.

Obviously everyone’s disappointed in the awful Brew Crew play, but is it really that unexpected? Coming into the season all projections were at about a .500 team, and they’re pretty much around there right now. I don’t think anybody expected the pitching staff to be this bad, but they’ll have another hot streak sometime down the road and creep up back into playoff contention, I’m sure. They just happen to be mired in a super long slump right now.

Until then, keep hopin’.

Oops.

2007: .254/.315./.425
2008: .225/.293/.396
2009 (so far): .202/.264/.338

Big oops.

That’s a move akin to the Jeffrey Hammonds pickup. Heck, they shared the same OPS in the first year of their big deals (.740). They divert from there, though. Hall is worse over the last two years than Hammonds was in the last two years of his three year deal.

Even worse, injuries and inflated expectations from Coors Field killed the Hammonds buzz, but you can’t say the same for Hall, at least on the injury front. Hammonds also started the contract at age 30, while Hall was at his prime age of 27.

Hall on his diminished role

It doesn’t seem like it’s getting better any time soon, either. Hall talks about a loss of confidence from others, and how he feels his situation is unfair. I can only guess that it’s tough to be in Bill Hall’s shoes right now, but I can’t get past that “unfair” comment without wondering why he’s even bringing it up. Of course things are unfair. On the other hand, you can’t expect much fairness when you’re not producing to the point where you’ve lost your job two straight seasons.

Maybe it’s time for the Brewers to have lunch on Bill Hall’s salary figure. I can’t see any benefit of keeping him around much longer.

UPDATED BELOW!!!!!!

With all the hubbub surrounding Roy Halladay I thought I’d chime in (again) on trading for him.

As of right now the Crew is 2.5 games out of first place in the Central and 2.5 pitchers out of a halfway decent starting rotation. Getting Halladay would be pretty much exactly the same as C.C. Sabathia in the “pitching godsend” department. I would hope that Halladay would propel the Brewers to a second-straight playoff berth,

But are you ready for years of mediocrity afterward? Take a look at Brewers 2010 contracts if Halladay’s traded:

Halladay: $15.75m
Jeff Suppan: $12.5m
Prince Fielder: $9m
Bill Hall: $8.4m
David Riske: $4.5m
Total: $50.15m

Assuming the Brewers’ payroll sticks around $85-90 million, you have 60% of your payroll stuck in five players. None of this even takes into account the arbitration salaries of Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, Dave Bush, etc. Of course this assumes Alcides Escobar is traded to the Blue Jays, as Hardy wouldn’t since Toronto wants the younger, cheaper talent.

With the money we wouldn’t save, we’d definitely wouldn’t be able to resign Mike Cameron or Jason Kendall when they hit free agency at the end of the year, meaning there would be a replacement-level CF and Mike Rivera behind the plate to begin 2010. In addition, next year’s rotation would be Halladay, Suppan, Parra (IF he’s not traded to the Jays), Bush, and Gallardo with no available depth in AAA and no prospects to speak of or depth in AAA in case someone gets injured. That rotation looks good on paper, but the only pitcher without an injury history is Halladay. I wouldn’t trust it to last an entire season.

The current core of young talent the Brewers probably won’t keep (Hart, Hardy, maybe even Weeks) begins to phase out at the beginning of 2011, so the Brewers could be entering a rebuilding mode if their current prospects take the Jeremy Jeffress route and don’t pan out the way they planned them to. They’ll be Blue Jays if the Brewers get Halladay, meaning that a prolonged slump in 2011 is inevitable. Are you prepared to sacrifice the well-being of the ballclub 2-3 years down the road if the Brewers try to add 1-2 wins to this year’s team? Is 1-2 wins going to be enough to win a mediocre division in 2009?

I couldn’t tell you that, but throwing away millions of dollars in worthwhile talent to satisfy this year’s needs aren’t worth it in the long run. It’s too much of a long shot at this point to justify trading for Halladay; if the Brewers didn’t have as many holes as they do now the trade would definitely make sense.

One thing that’s never been mentioned was how awful last year’s offseason went for Milwaukee. Remember how C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets were going to net the Brewers 4 first round draft picks in last year’s draft. After both Mark Teixiera and Sabathia both signed with the Yankees, an odd MLB rule only netted the Brew a supplemental first rounder. When nobody signed Sheets because of his injury, the Brewers didn’t get any compensation. Going 1/4 is never going to help bolster a weakening farm system.

Trading for Halladay would turn the 2011 Brewers into the 2001 Brewers, basically.

UPDATE: Reports are just confirming that Matt Holliday was just traded to St. Louis for a package of prospects including Brett Wallace. This trade makes the Cardinals without question a legitimate contender and sacrifices their future; Wallace is an up-and-coming phenom. More reason to hang on to prospects now, because in 2011, this division is going to be even more decidedly mediochre. Neither the Cubs nor the Astros have farm systems either, so in a couple years it may be a three-horse race between the Reds, Brewers, and Pirates.

Bullpen combined:
296 IP, 265 H, 254 K, 118 BB, 3.83 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 2.15 K:BB

That’s not too bad considering the sorry state the bullpen was last year. GM Doug Melvin did a good job over the offseason of signing and keeping the bullpen parts he needed and to jettison the parts he didn’t. Compared with the rest of the NL, he has essentially a league-average bullpen at his disposal.
But has the bullpen been utilized to its best extent? Is Ken Macha doing the right job?

To figure this out I used baseball-reference’s relief database to look at what pitchers have pitched the highest leverage innings and how their stats match up with what they’ve done so far. Here’s a listing of each Brewer reliever by ERA+ this season, from highest to lowest:

Mark DiFelice – 251
Trevor Hoffman – 220
Mitch Stettier (tied) – 159
Todd Coffey (tied) – 159
Chris Smith – 148
Seth McClung – 88
Carlos Villanueva – 69
Jorge Julio – 54
Chris Narveson – 50
R.J. Swindle – 31
David Riske – 23

Look at the dropoff between “Chris Smith” and “Seth McClung.” There are a few good parts and a few bad parts (How good has Mark DiFelice been?) in the pen, but let’s see how that compares with who’s being used where:

LevHi in the chart means the pitcher was entered into a ‘high leverage situation.’ LevMed and LevLo should be self-explanatory. For more information on Leverage, click here.

One of the really nice things about having a bullpen with either very good or very bad parts is it’s almost impossible to completely mismanage it. After this amount of time any person with a ticking clock behind their eyes can realize that Hoffman or Coffey is in fact a pretty good pitcher and Jorge Julio is just plain old awful.

Looking at this graph, there’s nothing really out of the ordinary here. Hoffman doesn’t get appearances unless the game is on the line. Chris Smith and Chris Narveson don’t get put in when the game is on the line. The only real outliers that come from this is that the high-ERA+ Chris Smith is put into low-leverage situations while the low-ERA+ Carlos Villanueva is thrown all over the place, because he was trusted early on and has since lost his job.

Two things that are a little bit concerning to me here though:

Todd Coffey is getting a little bit too much work. Coffey leads the bullpen in innings pitched outside of Seth McClung, who has started a few games and has been the long reliever all season long, with the exception of a few Chris Smith appearances. He’s on pace to throw 82-83 innings all year, which is really quite a bit of work for a big, lumbering man as Coffey. He could use an extended break here or there and he won’t if he’s getting so many low-leverage innings. For a guy that has as many low-leverage appearances as he has, and also threw two innings a couple nights ago separated by a rain delay he can easily find a few breaks.

Carlos Villanueva is a weird pitcher. Between this, his high ERA, his good strikeout numbers, I don’t understand where the dude is ever. One game he’ll strike out the side on 12 pitches, and other innings he’ll give up 6 runs without doing anything substantial. I really suspect that ERA will start to fall, as he’s starting to have some Manny Parra-like unlucky numbers up there. In terms of things he controls, he’s pitched better this year than in any other year.

I remember hearing an analyst, I think it was Jim Powell, explain Villanueva was probably going to be a guy who is capable of throwing either an entire season with a 3.25 ERA or he could have a 6.00 ERA. I didn’t think he’d ever be that bad, but perhaps he was right. He also said Will Inman (now with San Diego) is going to be a very good pitcher someday. Remember that Scott Linebrink trade?

(oh, and one random and funny note: This bullpen has been only slightly better than 2008′s, believe it or now. Take a look at just how good they were in comparison with the rest of the league last year. Hoo boy. The Brewers had the third best bullpen in 2008 but a worse ERA than this year’s. The league average last year was like Jeff Suppan. Think about that for a minute. How bad of a year was it for the NL?)

http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com/?p=5535

Jared from Right Field Bleachers takes a slightly different approach to the Halladay issue than I did, but he came up with similar results. In explaining the situation to a friend of mine tonight, I came to the same conclusion Jared did, one that I wasn’t quite ready to admit last night:

“The more I think about a move like this, the more I support it.”

Jared also mentions that 2009 and 2010 are about it for this core group of players, something he spent a few sentences on, and I spent a whole long-winded article on. In the end, though, we come to the same conclusion. I just hope the team doesn’t overpay if they end up making a deal. On the other hand, I’d easily trade another 10-15 years of being downtrodden for one World Series Championship. Ultimately, in my mind, any deal that is made will be judged on that and that alone.

Some of this will be quite obvious to most serious Brewers observers, but I thought I’d jump in with both feet and take a peek at who the Brewers have under contract now, and who they’ll have in two years. The Halladay rumors have me interested to know whether it’s time to make a big move now, and sacrifice the future, or if the team’s secure for quite a while.

Catcher:
Angel Salome is slotted to be catching in a few years, and maybe even next year, if Kendall doesn’t re-sign. I see no reason why that won’t be the case. Any prospect is a question mark, but it doesn’t appear to me that there’s much to worry about regarding Salome. That, and having Jonathan Lucroy available if Salome doesn’t make it is also heartening.

First Base:
Prince Fielder will not be a Brewer in 2012. I’d put money on it. The reason: Scott Boras. There will be no hometown discount, and there will be a lot of money in Prince Fielder’s pockets. This is where I have Gamel slotted in past 2011 if his defense isn’t up to par. Otherwise, I’m sure there will be a veteran fill-in available for a decent price if there isn’t a prospect that is ready by that point.

Second Base:
We can hope that Rickie Weeks recovers well from a second major wrist injury, but I’ll admit I have my doubts. I’m a big Weeks backer, but I find it hard to bank on him coming back strong, especially since he took a lot of time to recover from his first one. Brett Lawrie’s slotted to show up sometime around here for his first real taste of the bigs, which makes me feel much more confident about the position going forward, as I think one of the two will be able to contribute consistently. I highly doubt Felipe Lopez is more than a rental.

Shortstop:
I feel much better about this than I did earlier in the year, when I had doubts about Escobar’s hitting ability. He won’t be a star with the stick in the bigs, but I think he can hold his own soon enough. That makes what happens to JJ Hardy a bit less important. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, he’s eligible for free agency at the end of 2010. One wonders if he has a lot of value if he struggles the rest of this year and next. On the other hand, if he plays well, he’s due a big payday that the Brewers may be unable to afford. If the team doesn’t do so well next year, expect to hear a lot of Hardy to (insert AL East and/or high payroll team here) rumors.

Third Base:
Who’d have thought Casey McGehee would make such a claim to third base? Maybe it’s a mirage, but this gives Gamel a touch more time to get ready, at the very least. I can’t say for sure if he’s sticking around third for long, especially with Gamel nipping at his heels, but even so, McGehee may have to be the torchbearer at second in 2010, if Weeks doesn’t come back quickly. He’s also an option to come back to third should Gamel struggle with his glove. All in all, a very nice problem to have. Taylor Green is also a potential option in the future.

Outfield:
Ryan Braun is locked up for the next six years, which will hopefully be good ones for him. Even if, somehow, that doesn’t work out, Melvin made a great move getting him locked down to under-market prices for three of his free-agent years. Cameron will be long gone by then, sadly, and Corey Hart will be in his last year of arbitration in 2011. I think Hart’s leveled off a bit, but he’s still a major league caliber player. I’ll admit to being worried about center, it’s something Melvin’s going to have to find a solution for, even if it means moving Hart over and finding a fill in right fielder. Lorenzo Cain sticks out to me as the only possible prospect option there that I know of to this point.

Starting Pitching:
Even if somehow the Brewers swing something for Halladay, they’ll lose him after 2010, most likely. Suppan will also likely be gone at that point, and I wouldn’t count on Braden Looper either. Dave Bush is also a free agent after 2010. Gallardo and Parra may well still be up and running, but I’m not even going to try to project a 2012 starting rotation.

Relief Pitching:
Ditto here, but I’ll just mention who’s tied up through 2011. Carlos Villanueva will have his final arbitration year then, and Todd Coffey will just become a free agent for the first time. Mark DiFelice will still be under team control if he’s not moved, but he’ll also be of an age where not much can be rightfully expected of him. Tim Dillard will be a bit younger, and also under team control, although I do wonder what the team has planned for him.

What’s the point of all this? This is the kind of thing that Doug Melvin already has in mind as he’s negotiating with Toronto. Most likely he has different views on some of the players than I do, especially the prospects, but the point is, its decision time. How much of this future does he give up? Does he trust his young pitchers to keep developing to replace the old arms? Does he trust the young prospects in the field to become what we think they can become? How much more money can he expect from Mark Attanasio for payroll in the future? If the answers to those questions are no, no, and not much, don’t be surprised if Melvin sells the farm for this chance. If the answers are yes, yes, and quite a bit, there’s no way he’s risking the future. I’ll bet that the answer is somewhere in the middle. This makes the next 10 days very interesting indeed, as we know Melvin at least believes enough in the team to sacrifice some minor prospects for a shot at the playoffs, due to the Lopez trade. Your guess is as good as mine as to what will actually happen.

Cody, you’re being modest. You’re doing a great job here, and I’m glad I can help.

My name is Joe, obviously, and the JoeKnows name is one I’ve had for quite a while. It’s a play off of Bo Knows, which dates me a bit, but I was still born in the 80′s, for those curious.

It’s nice to be writing for an audience again, my own blog had an audience of about 3, making it hard to be motivated. I’m sure I’ll have no such concerns here.

I’ll see if I can’t come up with some actual entertaining reading tonight, but for now, hi, and let’s have some fun!

BPL is no longer a one-man show! Say hello to JoeKnows, BPL’s newest writer. He’ll also be jotting down a few posts per week in addition to mine, and he’s a better writer than I am, so I’m excited to see what he comes up with. Joe previously wrote for a personal blog and I’m excited to see what he’s got for us.

He should post a little intro pretty shortly, so welcome him to BPL! Feel free to e-mail him at joeknows@brewerparadiselost.com with any comments, questions, or anything else.

BPL is almost done moving over to this domain, so we should be pumping stuff out at max capacity starting now. I’ll let JoeKnows start the show though…

The Crew traded two prospects for second-baseman Felipe Lopez; after the game on Sunday, hopefully solidifying their second base situation as well as their platoon at third in the process.

Lopez should be a really nice addition to the team, as it gives them stability from another position on the diamond and also over the past few years has been a decent top-of-the-order guy, and the Brewers have thrown Jason Kendall at the top of the order enough times this season where Milwaukee can’t say they don’t need a leadoff guy anymore. And at the price of a low-upside left fielder from AAA and a relief prospect from the depths of the minor league system, I approve of the trade. To an extent, anyway.

Lopez this year has hit .305/.368/.416 for the Diamondbacks along with essentially league-average defense, which makes him one of the better 2Bs in the league. However looking beneath the surface of his stats one might not expect him to do so well. For starters, he’s put up those numbers in one of the most premier hitters parks in Arizona, and now he’s transferring to a league-average park here in Milwaukee in terms of hitting.

Not only that, but he’s benefited from a little bit of luck this year in Arizona as well. His .355 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is quite a bit higher than what he’s had throughout his career. So far this year, he’s also hit way more ground balls than he’s normally done and decreased his fly ball percentage. If he keeps that up, one can expect his production to be much worse than what the Brewers expected Craig Counsell to get.

Of course there’s no way to actually figure out how good Lopez is going to do until the Brewers watch him play. I don’t think sending Casey McGehee and Craig Counsell into a third-base platoon will solve all the Brewers’ problems right now. I don’t quite see this as a move that will propel Milwaukee to the playoffs quite yet.

***

Seth McClung endeared himself to Brewers fans last year by throwing four excellent clutch innings in one of the final games of the year, and then jumped around in the bullpen when Ryan Braun hit the decisive home run in the 8th inning that propelled the Crew to the Wild Card. I’d be the first one to admit that I really liked having Chucky in the bullpen and he was really pretty good for the Crew last year.

However this year it’s been a different story. He’s blown more than one lead recently and he can’t throw any of his pitches over for strikes. His current 4.64 ERA is a mirage at this point as his K:BB ratio is dangerously close to one. Throw that in with nearly 2 home runs/9 innings, and he’s really been disastrous for the Brewers this year.

If Seth McClung didn’t say stuff like this, I’d recommend he get DFA’d

McClung has never been the lights-out pitcher we’ve seen in flashes over the past few years and this year he might be on an extended break from being good. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is over 6, implying that his current 4.84 ERA is only bound to get worse from this point on. Ken Macha should send him to the way back of the bullpen until he can start locating his pitches again.

He’s seemingly had the tendency to be an extremely off-and-on pitcher; when he can locate both his fastball and curveball he’s nearly unhittable, and when he can’t locate both pitches it’s like putting me on the mound to face Albert Pujols. I don’t know if the Brewers can afford that kind of inconsistency at this point in the season…with the easy scheduling coming up, losing a bunch of close games because McClung walks the first two batters in the 8th is going to leave a sour taste in Milwaukee’s mouth for the rest of the season.

If he continues to be bad, do the Brewers DFA him? With the plethora of bullpen arms available pretty much anywhere, I don’t think keeping a sentimental piece of the team around if he horrible is the right thing to do.

Recently posted article by Tom H. Dave Bush struggled in his outing last night and complained of arm fatigue after being erratic and awful for AA-Huntsville last night.

That means Mike Burns will make a start. If he’s out for any extended period of time, maybe even I’d advocate trading for a nice pitcher.